TY  - UNPD
A1  - Roth, Christopher
A1  - Wohlfart, Johannes
T1  - How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?
T2  - Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; 128
N2  - Policymakers attach an important role to the macroeconomic outlook of households. Using a representative online panel form the U.S., the authors examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior and provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. The authors find that groups with the largest exposure to aggregate risk, such as individuals working in cyclical industries, are most likely to respond to an improved macroeconomic outlook, while a large fraction of the population is unlikely to react.
T3  - Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability - 128 
KW  - expectation formation
KW  - information
KW  - updating
KW  - aggregate uncertainty
KW  - macroeconomic conditions
Y1  - 2018
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/48803
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-488037
UR  - https://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/de/forschung/imfs-working-papers.html
PB  - Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability
CY  - Frankfurt am Main
ER  -