TY  - JOUR
A1  - Frieler, Katja
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Elliot, Joshua
A1  - Heinke, Jens
A1  - Arneth, Almut
A1  - Bierkens, Marc F. P.
A1  - Ciais, Philippe
A1  - Clark, Douglas B.
A1  - Deryng, Delphine
A1  - Döll, Petra
A1  - Falloon, Pete
A1  - Fekete, Balázs M.
A1  - Folberth, Christian
A1  - Friend, Andrew D.
A1  - Gellhorn, Catrin
A1  - Gosling, Simon N.
A1  - Haddeland, Ingjerd
A1  - Khabarov, Nikolay
A1  - Lomas, Marc R.
A1  - Masaki, Yusuke
A1  - Nishina, Kazuya
A1  - Neumann, Kathleen
A1  - Oki, Taikan
A1  - Pavlick, Ryan
A1  - Ruane, Alex C.
A1  - Schmid, Erwin
A1  - Schmitz, Christoph
A1  - Stacke, Tobias
A1  - Stehfest, Elke
A1  - Tang, Qiuhong
A1  - Wisser, Dominik
A1  - Huber, Veronika
A1  - Piontek, Franziska
A1  - Warszawski, Lila
A1  - Schewe, Jacob
A1  - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
A1  - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
T1  - The relevance of uncertainty in future crop production for mitigation
strategy planning
T2  - Earth System Dynamics Discussions
N2  - In order to achieve climate change mitigation, long-term decisions are required that must be reconciled with other societal goals that draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of crop land, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. Here, we show that current impact-model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and propose a new risk-assessment and decision framework that accounts for competing interests.
Based on cross-sectorally consistent simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) we discuss potential gains and limitations of additional irrigation and trade-offs of the expansion of agricultural land as two possible response measures to climate change and growing food demand. We describe an illustrative example in which the combination of both measures may close the supply demand gap while leading to a loss of approximately half of all natural carbon sinks. 
We highlight current limitations of available simulations and additional steps required for a comprehensive risk assessment.
Y1  - 2014
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/30645
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-306454
SN  - 2190-4987
SN  - 2190-4979
VL  - 5
SP  - 1075
EP  - 1099
PB  - Copernicus Publications
CY  - Göttingen
ER  -