The American consumer: reforming, or just resting?

  • American households have received a triple dose of bad news since the beginning of the current recession: The greatest collapse in asset values since the Great Depression, a sharp tightening in credit availability, and a large increase in unemployment risk. We present measures of the size of these shocks and discuss what a benchmark theory says about their immediate and ultimate consequences. We then provide a forecast based on a simple empirical model that captures the effects of wealth shocks and unemployment fears. Our short-term forecast calls for somewhat weaker spending, and somewhat higher saving rates, than the Consensus survey of macroeconomic forecasters. Over the longer term, our best guess is that the personal saving rate will eventually approach the levels that preceded period of financial liberalization that began in the late 1970s. Classification: C61, D11, E24

Download full text files

Export metadata

Additional Services

Share in Twitter Search Google Scholar
Metadaten
Author:Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-68317
Parent Title (German):Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 2009,12
Series (Serial Number):CFS working paper series (2009, 12)
Document Type:Working Paper
Language:English
Year of Completion:2009
Year of first Publication:2009
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2009/08/14
Tag:Consumption/Saving Forecast; Credit Crunch; Financial Crisis
GND Keyword:USA; Haushalt; Immaterieller Anlagewert; Kreditgewährung; Arbeitslosigkeit
HeBIS-PPN:214920399
Institutes:Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht