Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the Euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve
- The recent decline in euro area inflation has triggered new calls for additional monetary stimulus by the ECB in order to counter the threat of a self‐reinforcing deflation and recession spiral. This note reviews the available evidence on inflation expectations, output gaps and other factors driving current inflation through the lens of the Phillips curve. It also draws a comparison to the Japanese experience with deflation in the late 1990s and the evidence from Japan concerning the outputinflation nexus at low trend inflation. The note concludes from this evidence that the risk of a selfreinforcing deflation remains very small. Thus, the ECB best await the impact of the long‐term refinancing operations decided in June that have the potential to induce substantial monetary accommodation once implemented for the first time in September.
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| Verfasserangaben: | Volker WielandORCiDGND, Maik WoltersORCiDGND |
|---|---|
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-349948 |
| URL: | http://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/fileadmin/user_upload/IMFS_WP/IMFS_WP_80_Remsperger.pdf |
| Titel des übergeordneten Werkes (Deutsch): | Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; 81 |
| Schriftenreihe (Bandnummer): | Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (81) |
| Verlag: | Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability |
| Verlagsort: | Frankfurt am Main |
| Dokumentart: | Arbeitspapier |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Jahr der Fertigstellung: | 2014 |
| Jahr der Erstveröffentlichung: | 2014 |
| Veröffentlichende Institution: | Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg |
| Datum der Freischaltung: | 19.09.2014 |
| Ausgabe / Heft: | Version September 2, 2014 |
| Seitenzahl: | 15 |
| HeBIS-PPN: | 348151551 |
| Institute: | Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) | |
| Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE) | |
| DDC-Klassifikation: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft |
| Sammlungen: | Universitätspublikationen |
| Lizenz (Deutsch): |  Deutsches Urheberrecht |
