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New methods for macro-financial model comparison and policy analysis

  • The global financial crisis and the ensuing criticism of macroeconomics have inspired researchers to explore new modeling approaches. There are many new models that deliver improved estimates of the transmission of macroeconomic policies and aim to better integrate the financial sector in business cycle analysis. Policy making institutions need to compare available models of policy transmission and evaluate the impact and interaction of policy instruments in order to design effective policy strategies. This paper reviews the literature on model comparison and presents a new approach for comparative analysis. Its computational implementation enables individual researchers to conduct systematic model comparisons and policy evaluations easily and at low cost. This approach also contributes to improving reproducibility of computational research in macroeconomic modeling. Several applications serve to illustrate the usefulness of model comparison and the new tools in the area of monetary and fiscal policy. They include an analysis of the impact of parameter shifts on the effects of fiscal policy, a comparison of monetary policy transmission across model generations and a cross-country comparison of the impact of changes in central bank rates in the United States and the euro area. Furthermore, the paper includes a large-scale comparison of the dynamics and policy implications of different macro-financial models. The models considered account for financial accelerator effects in investment financing, credit and house price booms and a role for bank capital. A final exercise illustrates how these models can be used to assess the benefits of leaning against credit growth in monetary policy.

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Metadaten
Verfasserangaben:Volker WielandORCiDGND, Elena AfanasyevaORCiDGND, Meguy Kuete, Jinhyuk YooGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-417119
URL:http://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/fileadmin/user_upload/IMFS_WP/IMFS_WP_107.pdf
Titel des übergeordneten Werkes (Englisch):Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; 107
Schriftenreihe (Bandnummer):Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (107)
Verlag:Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability
Verlagsort:Frankfurt am Main
Dokumentart:Arbeitspapier
Sprache:Englisch
Jahr der Fertigstellung:2016
Jahr der Erstveröffentlichung:2016
Veröffentlichende Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Datum der Freischaltung:25.10.2016
Freies Schlagwort / Tag:fiscal policy; macro-financial models; model comparison; model uncertainty; monetary policy; policy robustness
Auflage:August 23, 2016
Seitenzahl:84
HeBIS-PPN:390298468
Institute:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
DDC-Klassifikation:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Sammlungen:Universitätspublikationen
Lizenz (Deutsch):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht