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The American consumer: reforming, or just resting?
- American households have received a triple dose of bad news since the beginning of the current recession: The greatest collapse in asset values since the Great Depression, a sharp tightening in credit availability, and a large increase in unemployment risk. We present measures of the size of these shocks and discuss what a benchmark theory says about their immediate and ultimate consequences. We then provide a forecast based on a simple empirical model that captures the effects of wealth shocks and unemployment fears. Our short-term forecast calls for somewhat weaker spending, and somewhat higher saving rates, than the Consensus survey of macroeconomic forecasters. Over the longer term, our best guess is that the personal saving rate will eventually approach the levels that preceded period of financial liberalization that began in the late 1970s. Classification: C61, D11, E24
| Verfasserangaben: | Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek |
|---|---|
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-68317 |
| Titel des übergeordneten Werkes (Deutsch): | Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 2009,12 |
| Schriftenreihe (Bandnummer): | CFS working paper series (2009, 12) |
| Dokumentart: | Arbeitspapier |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Jahr der Fertigstellung: | 2009 |
| Jahr der Erstveröffentlichung: | 2009 |
| Veröffentlichende Institution: | Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg |
| Datum der Freischaltung: | 14.08.2009 |
| Freies Schlagwort / Tag: | Consumption/Saving Forecast; Credit Crunch; Financial Crisis |
| GND-Schlagwort: | USA; Haushalt; Immaterieller Anlagewert; Kreditgewährung; Arbeitslosigkeit |
| HeBIS-PPN: | 214920399 |
| Institute: | Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS) |
| DDC-Klassifikation: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft |
| Lizenz (Deutsch): |  Deutsches Urheberrecht |
