Measuring confidence and uncertainty during the financial crisis : evidence from the CFS survey
- The CFS survey covers individual situations of banks and other companies of the financial sector during the financial crisis. This provides a rare possibility to analyze appraisals, expectations and forecast errors of the core sector of the recent turmoil. Following standard ways of aggregating individual survey data, we first present and introduce the CFS survey by comparing CFS indicators of confidence and predicted confidence to ifo and ZEW indicators. The major contribution is the analysis of several indicators of uncertainty. In addition to well established concepts, we introduce innovative measures based on the skewness of forecast errors and on the share of ‘no response’ replies. Results show that uncertainty indicators fit quite well with pattern of real and financial time series of the time period 2007 to 2010. Business Sentiment , Financial Crisis , Survey Indicator , Uncertainty
| Author: | Horst EntorfGND, Christian Knoll, Liliya Sattarova |
|---|---|
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-75644 |
| Parent Title (German): | Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 2010,18 |
| Series (Serial Number): | CFS working paper series (2010, 18) |
| Publisher: | Goethe-Univ., House of Finance, Center for Financial Studies |
| Place of publication: | Frankfurt am Main |
| Document Type: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Year of Completion: | 2010 |
| Year of first Publication: | 2010 |
| Publishing Institution: | Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg |
| Release Date: | 2010/09/04 |
| Tag: | Business Sentiment; Financial Crisis; Survey Indicator; Uncertainty |
| GND Keyword: | Finanzkrise; Kreditwesen; Finanzintermediäre; Geschichte 2007-2010 |
| Issue: | Version July 1, 2010 |
| Page Number: | 37 |
| HeBIS-PPN: | 226769372 |
| Institutes: | Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS) | |
| Dewey Decimal Classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft |
| Sammlungen: | Universitätspublikationen |
| Licence (German): |  Deutsches Urheberrecht |
