TY  - UNPD
A1  - Baumeister, Christiane
A1  - Kilian, Lutz
T1  - Forty years of oil price fluctuations: why the price of oil may still surprise us
T2  - Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 525
N2  - It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged. Drawing on this literature, we first provide an overview of the causes of all major oil price fluctuations between 1973 and 2014. We then discuss why oil price fluctuations remain difficult to predict, despite economists’ improved understanding of oil markets. Unexpected oil price fluctuations are commonly referred to as oil price shocks. We document that, in practice, consumers, policymakers, financial market participants and economists may have different oil price expectations, and that, what may be surprising to some, need not be equally surprising to others.
T3  - CFS working paper series - 525 
KW  - oil market
KW  - oil price shock
KW  - heterogeneous price expectations
KW  - OPEC
KW  - peak oil
KW  - unconventional oil
Y1  - 2016
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/39294
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-392941
UR  - http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2714319
PB  - Center for Financial Studies
CY  - Frankfurt, M.
ER  -