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    <title>OPUS 4 Latest Documents RSS Feed</title>
    <description>Latest documents</description>
    <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/index/index/</link>
    <pubDate>Tue, 02 Apr 2013 13:53:23 +0100</pubDate>
    <lastBuildDate>Tue, 02 Apr 2013 13:53:23 +0100</lastBuildDate>
    <item>
      <title>Monetary theory and monetary policy : reflections on the development over the last 150 years</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28635</link>
      <description>In this paper, we provide some reflections on the development of monetary theory and monetary policy over the last 150 years. Rather than presenting an encompassing overview, which would be overambitious, we simply concentrate on a few selected aspects that we view as milestones in the development of this subject. We also try to illustrate some of the interactions with the political and financial system, academic discussion and the views and actions of central banks.</description>
      <author>Otmar Issing; Volker Wieland</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28635</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 04 Feb 2013 13:53:23 +0100</pubDate>
    </item>
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      <title>Strategic transparency and electoral pressure</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28634</link>
      <description>This paper investigates how an office-motivated incumbent can use transparency enhancement on public spending to signal his budgetary management ability and win re-election. We show that when the incumbent faces a popular challenger, transparency policy can be an effective signaling device. A more popular challenger can reduce the probability to enhance transparency, while voters can be better off due to a more informative signaling. It is also shown that a higher level of public interest in fiscal issues can increase the probability of enhancing transparency, while voters can be worse off by a less informative signaling.</description>
      <author>Laura Moretti; Toru Suzuki</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28634</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 04 Feb 2013 13:45:37 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>Analyzing the effects of insuring health risks : on the trade-off between short run insurance benefits vs. long run incentive costs</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28633</link>
      <description>This paper constructs a dynamic model of health insurance to evaluate the short- and long run effects of policies that prevent firms from conditioning wages on health conditions of their workers, and that prevent health insurance companies from charging individuals with adverse health conditions higher insurance premia. Our study is motivated by recent US legislation that has tightened regulations on wage discrimination against workers with poorer health status (Americans with Disability Act of 2009, ADA, and ADA Amendments Act of 2008, ADAAA) and that will prohibit health insurance companies from charging different premiums for workers of different health status starting in 2014 (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, PPACA). In the model, a trade-off arises between the static gains from better insurance against poor health induced by these policies and their adverse dynamic incentive effects on household efforts to lead a healthy life. Using household panel data from the PSID we estimate and calibrate the model and then use it to evaluate the static and dynamic consequences of no-wage discrimination and no-prior conditions laws for the evolution of the cross-sectional health and consumption distribution of a cohort of households, as well as ex-ante lifetime utility of a typical member of this cohort. In our quantitative analysis we find that although a combination of both policies is effective in providing full consumption insurance period by period, it is suboptimal to introduce both policies jointly since such policy innovation induces a more rapid deterioration of the cohort health distribution over time. This is due to the fact that combination of both laws severely undermines the incentives to lead healthier lives. The resulting negative effects on health outcomes in society more than offset the static gains from better consumption insurance so that expected discounted lifetime utility is lower under both policies, relative to only implementing wage nondiscrimination legislation.</description>
      <author>Harold L. Cole; Soojin Kim; Dirk Krueger</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28633</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 04 Feb 2013 13:36:03 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>The effect of anticipated and experienced regret and pride on investors' future selling decisions'</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28632</link>
      <description>This paper investigates the effect of anticipated/experienced regret and pride on individual investors’ decisions to hold or sell a winning or losing investment, in the form of the disposition effect. As expected the results suggest that in the loss domain, low anticipated regret predicts a greater probability of selling a losing investment. While in the gain domain, high anticipated pride indicates a greater probability of selling a winning investment. The effects of high experienced regret/pride on the selling probability are found as well. An unexpected finding is that regret (pride) seems to be not only relevant for the loss (gain) domain, but also for the gain (loss) domain. In addition, this paper presents evidence of interconnectedness between anticipated and experienced emotions. The authors discuss the implications of these findings and possible avenues for further research</description>
      <author>Carmen Lee; Roman Kräussl; Leo Paas</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28632</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 04 Feb 2013 13:26:51 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>Has Europe Been Catching Up? : An Industry Level Analysis of Venture Capital Success over 1985–2009</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28631</link>
      <description>After nearly two decades of US leadership during the 1980s and 1990s, are Europe’s venture capital (VC) markets in the 2000s finally catching up regarding the provision of financing and successful exits, or is the performance gap as wide as ever? Are we amid an overall VC performance slump with no encouraging news? We attempt to answer these questions by tracking over 40,000 VC-backed firms stemming from six industries in 13 European countries and the US between 1985 and 2009; determining the type of exit – if any – each particular firm’s investors choose for the venture.</description>
      <author>Roman Kräussl; Stefan Krause</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28631</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 04 Feb 2013 13:19:33 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>Is Venture Capital a Local Business? : A Test of the Proximity and Local Network Hypotheses</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28630</link>
      <description>Venture capital (VC) investment has long been conceptualized as a local business , in which the VC’s ability to source, syndicate, fund, monitor, and add value to portfolio firms critically depends on their access to knowledge obtained through their ties to the local (i.e., geographically proximate) network. Consistent with the view that local networks matter, existing research confirms that local and geographically distant portfolio firms are sourced, syndicated, funded, and monitored differently. Curiously, emerging research on VC investment practice within the United States finds that distant investments, as measured by “exits” (either initial public offering or merger &amp; acquisition) out-perform local investments. These findings raise important questions about the assumed benefits of local network membership and proximity. To more deeply probe these questions, we contrast the deal structure of cross-border VC investment with domestic VC investment, and contrast the deal structure of cross-border VC investments that include a local&#13;
partner with those that do not. Evidence from 139,892 rounds of venture capital financing in the period 1980-2009 suggests that cross-border investment practice, in terms of deal sourcing, syndication, and performance indeed change with proximity, but that monitoring practices do not. Further, we find that the inclusion of a local partner in the investment syndicate yields surprisingly few benefits. This evidence, we argue, raises important questions about VC investment practice as well as the ability of firms to capture and lever the presumed benefits of network membership.</description>
      <author>Robert Wuebker; William Schulze; Roman Kräussl</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/28630</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 04 Feb 2013 13:09:23 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>Test of the German Resilience</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/26877</link>
      <description>From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external demand, in turn, has elevated German GDP growth volatility by advanced countries’ standards, keeping domestic consumption growth at surprisingly low levels. As a consequence, despite the size of its economy and important labor market reforms, Germany’s ability to act as global locomotive has been limited. With increasing competition in its traditional areas of manufacturing, a more domestically-driven growth dynamic, especially in the production and delivery of services, will be good for Germany and for the global economy. Absent such an effort, German growth will remain constrained, and Germany will play only a modest role in spurring growth elsewhere. </description>
      <author>Fabian Bornhorst; Ashoka Mody</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/26877</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2012 17:09:03 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>The dynamics of spillover effects during the european sovereign debt turmoil</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/26658</link>
      <description>In this paper we develop empirical measures for the strength of spillover effects. Modifying and extending the framework by Diebold and Yilmaz (2011), we quantify spillovers between sovereign credit markets and banks in the euro area. Spillovers are estimated recursively from a vector autoregressive model of daily CDS spread changes, with exogenous common factors. We account for interdependencies between sovereign and bank CDS spreads and we derive generalised impulse response functions. Specifically, we assess the systemic effect of an unexpected shock to the creditworthiness of a particular sovereign or country-specific bank index to other sovereign or bank CDSs between October 2009 and July 2012. Channels of transmission from or to sovereigns and banks are aggregated as a Contagion index (CI). This index is disentangled into four components, the average potential spillover: i) amongst sovereigns, ii) amongst banks, iii) from sovereigns to banks, and iv) vice-versa. We highlight the impact of policy-related events along the different components of the contagion index. The systemic contribution of each sovereign or banking group is quantified as the net spillover weight in the total net-spillover measure. Finally, the captured time-varying interdependence between banks and sovereigns emphasises the evolution of their strong nexus.</description>
      <author>Adrian Alter; Andreas Beyer</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/26658</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:22:28 +0100</pubDate>
    </item>
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      <title>Fiscal consolidation strategy</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/27251</link>
      <description>n the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent after the crisis. In this paper we consider a fiscal consolidation strategy that brings the budget to balance by gradually reducing this spending ratio over time to the level that prevailed prior to the crisis. A crucial issue is the impact of such a consolidation strategy on the economy. We use structural macroeconomic models to estimate this impact focussing primarily on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs. We separate out the impact of reductions in government purchases and transfers, and we allow for a reduction in both distortionary taxes and government debt relative to the baseline of no consolidation. According to the model simulations GDP rises in the short run upon announcement and implementation of this fiscal consolidation strategy and remains higher than the baseline in the long run. We explore the role of the mix of expenditure cuts and tax reductions as well as gradualism in achieving this policy outcome. Finally, we conduct sensitivity studies regarding the type of model used and its parameterization. </description>
      <author>John F. Cogan; John B. Taylor; Volker Wieland; Maik H. Wolters</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/27251</guid>
      <pubDate>Thu, 18 Oct 2012 14:09:48 +0200</pubDate>
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      <title>Complexity and monetary policy</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/27254</link>
      <description>The complexity resulting from intertwined uncertainties regarding model misspecification and mismeasurement of the state of the economy defines the monetary policy landscape. Using the euro area as laboratory this paper explores the design of robust policy guides aiming to maintain stability in the economy while recognizing this complexity. We document substantial output gap mismeasurement and make use of a new model data base to capture the evolution of model specification. A simple interest rate rule is employed to interpret ECB policy since 1999. An evaluation of alternative policy rules across 11 models of the euro area confirms the fragility of policy analysis optimized for any specific model and shows the merits of model averaging in policy design. Interestingly, a simple difference rule with the same coefficients on inflation and output growth as the one used to interpret ECB policy is quite robust as long as it responds to current outcomes of these variables.</description>
      <author>Athanasios Orphanides; Volker Wieland</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/27254</guid>
      <pubDate>Thu, 18 Oct 2012 14:03:15 +0200</pubDate>
    </item>
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      <title>Dissecting saving dynamics: measuring wealth, precautionary, and credit effects</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/27253</link>
      <description>We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (1960s–1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s–2007), and recent substantial rise (2008–2011) can be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the long-term saving decline, while fluctuations in wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.</description>
      <author>Christopher D. Carroll; Jiri Slacalek; Martin Sommer</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/27253</guid>
      <pubDate>Thu, 18 Oct 2012 13:56:47 +0200</pubDate>
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      <title>Are risk preferences dynamic? : Within-subject variation in risk-taking as a function of background music</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/27252</link>
      <description>This paper investigates whether preference interactions can explain why risk preferences change over time and across contexts. We conduct an experiment in which subjects accept or reject gambles involving real money gains and losses. We introduce within-subject variation by alternating subjectively liked music and disliked music in the background. We find that favourite music increases risk-taking, and disliked music suppresses risk-taking, compared to a baseline of no music. Several theories in psychology propose mechanisms by which mood affects risktaking, but none of them fully explain our results. The results are, however, consistent with preference complementarities that extend to risk preference.</description>
      <author>Marja Liisa Halko; Markku Kaustia</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/27252</guid>
      <pubDate>Thu, 18 Oct 2012 13:48:20 +0200</pubDate>
    </item>
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      <title>Financial sophistication in the older population</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/25657</link>
      <description>This paper examines data on financial sophistication among the U.S. older population, using a special-purpose module implemented in the Health and Retirement Study. We show that financial sophistication is deficient for older respondents (aged 55+). Specifically, many in this group lack a basic grasp of asset pricing, risk diversification, portfolio choice, and investment fees. Subpopulations with particular deficits include women, the least educated, persons over the age of 75, and non-Whites. In view of the fact that people are increasingly being asked to take on responsibility for their own retirement security, such lack of knowledge can have serious implications.</description>
      <author>Annamaria Lusardi; Olivia S. Mitchell; Vilsa  Curto</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/25657</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Aug 2012 17:45:00 +0200</pubDate>
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      <title>A dynamic programming approach to constrained portfolios</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/25656</link>
      <description>This paper studies constrained portfolio problems that may involve constraints on the probability or the expected size of a shortfall of wealth or consumption. Our first contribution is that we solve the problems by dynamic programming, which is in contrast to the existing literature that applies the martingale method. More precisely, we construct the non-separable value function by formalizing the optimal constrained terminal wealth to be a (conjectured) contingent claim on the optimal non-constrained terminal wealth. This is relevant by itself, but also opens up the opportunity to derive new solutions to constrained problems. As a second contribution, we thus derive new results for non-strict constraints on the shortfall of inter¬mediate wealth and/or consumption.</description>
      <author>Holger Kraft; Mogens Steffensen</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/25656</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Aug 2012 17:39:52 +0200</pubDate>
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      <title>Central banks – paradise lost</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/25229</link>
      <description/>
      <author>Otmar Issing</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/25229</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 18 Jun 2012 14:00:20 +0200</pubDate>
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      <title>Household debt and social interactions</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24086</link>
      <description>Debt-induced crises, including the subprime, are usually attributed exclusively to supply-side factors. We examine the role of social influences on debt culture, emanating from perceived average income of peers. Utilizing unique information from a household survey representative of the Dutch population, that circumvents the issue of defining the social circle, we consider collateralized, consumer, and informal loans. We find robust social effects on borrowing, especially among those who consider themselves poorer than their peers; and on indebtedness, suggesting a link to financial distress. We employ a number of approaches to rule out spurious associations and to handle correlated effects.</description>
      <author>Dimitris Georgarakos; Michael Haliassos; Giacomo Pasini</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24086</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 03 Apr 2012 16:29:07 +0200</pubDate>
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      <title>On the dark side of the market: identifying and analyzing hidden order placements</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24085</link>
      <description>Trading under limited pre-trade transparency becomes increasingly popular on financial markets. We provide first evidence on traders’ use of (completely) hidden orders which might be placed even inside of the (displayed) bid-ask spread. Employing TotalView-ITCH data on order messages at NASDAQ, we propose a simple method to conduct statistical inference on the location of hidden depth and to test economic hypotheses. Analyzing a wide cross-section of stocks, we show that market conditions reflected by the (visible) bid-ask spread, (visible) depth, recent price movements and trading signals significantly affect the aggressiveness of ’dark’ liquidity supply and thus the ’hidden spread’. Our evidence suggests that traders balance hidden order placements to (i) compete for the provision of (hidden) liquidity and (ii) protect themselves against adverse selection, front-running as well as ’hidden order detection strategies’ used by high-frequency traders. Accordingly, our results show that hidden liquidity locations are predictable given the observable state of the market.</description>
      <author>Nikolaus Hautsch; Ruihong Huang</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24085</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 03 Apr 2012 16:20:01 +0200</pubDate>
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      <title>A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24084</link>
      <description>In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomic modeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of macroeconomic models. This paper proposes a comparative approach to macroeconomic policy analysis that is open to competing modeling paradigms. Macroeconomic model comparison projects have helped produce some very influential insights such as the Taylor rule. However, they have been infrequent and costly, because they require the input of many teams of researchers and multiple meetings to obtain a limited set of comparative findings. This paper provides a new approach that enables individual researchers to conduct model comparisons easily, frequently, at low cost and on a large scale. Using this approach a model archive is built that includes many well-known empirically estimated models that may be used for quantitative analysis of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies. A computational platform is created that allows straightforward comparisons of models’ implications. Its application is illustrated by comparing different monetary and fiscal policies across selected models. Researchers can easily include new models in the data base and compare the effects of novel extensions to established benchmarks thereby fostering a comparative instead of insular approach to model development.</description>
      <author>Volker Wieland; Tobias J. Cwik; Gernot J. Müller; Sebastian Schmidt; Maik Hendrik Wolters</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24084</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 03 Apr 2012 16:08:46 +0200</pubDate>
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      <title>Going public - going private : the case of VC-backed firms</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24057</link>
      <description>We investigate the decisions of listed firms to go private once again. We start by revealing that while a significant number of firms which go public is VC-backed, an overproportional share of these VC-backed firms go private later on (they stay on the exchange for an average of 8.5 years). We interpret this very robust pattern such that IPOs of VC-backed firms are to a large extent a temporary rather than a permanent feature of the corporate governance of these firms. We investigate various potential hypotheses why VCs actually seem to be able to bring marginal firms to the exchange by relating the going-private decisions to various characteristics of the IPO market as well as to VC characteristics. We find strong support for the certification ability of VCs: more experienced and reputable VCs are more able to bring marginal firms to public exchanges via an IPOs. These marginal firms backed-by more reputable and experienced VCs are more likely to go private later on. Hence, our analysis suggests that IPOs backed by experienced VCs are most likely to be a temporary rather than the final stage in the life of the portfolio firm. We find no support that reputable VCs underprice their IPO-exits more implying that they have no need to leave more money on the table to take the marginal firms public.</description>
      <author>Andrej Gill; Uwe Walz</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24057</guid>
      <pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2012 16:32:21 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>Inflation targeting and product market deregulation</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24116</link>
      <description>I evaluate the effect of inflation targeting on inflation and how it interacts with product market deregulation during the disinflationary process in the 1990s. Using a sample of 21 OECD countries, I show that, after controlling for product market deregulation, the effect of inflation targeting is quantitatively important and statistically significant. Moreover, product market deregulation also matters in particular in countries that adopted an inflation targeting regime. I propose a New Keynesian Phillips curve with an explicit role for market deregulation to rationalize the empirical evidence.</description>
      <author>Laura Moretti</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24116</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 11:14:37 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>Insuring non-verifiable losses</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24115</link>
      <description>Insurance contracts are often complex and difficult to verify outside the insurance relation. We show that standard one-period insurance policies with an upper limit and a deductible are the optimal incentive-compatible contracts in a competitive market with repeated interaction. Optimal group insurance policies involve a joint upper limit but individual deductibles and insurance brokers can play a role implementing such contracts for the group of clients. Our model provides new insights and predictions about the determinants of insurance.</description>
      <author>Neil A. Doherty; Christian Laux; Alexander Muermann</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24115</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 11:04:23 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>New evidence on the effectiveness of 'Quantitative Easing' in Japan</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24114</link>
      <description>Central banks have recently introduced new policy initiatives, including a policy called ‘Quantitative Easing’ (QE). Since it has been argued by the Bank of England that “Standard economic models are of limited use in these unusual circumstances, and the empirical evidence is extremely limited” (Bank of England, 2009b), we have taken an entirely empirical approach and have focused on the QE-experience, on which substantial data is available, namely that of Japan (2001-2006). Recent literature on the effectiveness of QE has neglected any reference to final policy goals. In this paper, we adopt the view that ultimately effectiveness will be measured by whether it will be able to “boost spending” (Bank of England, 2009b) and “will ultimately be judged by their impact on the wider macroeconomy” (Bank of England, 2010). In line with a widely held view among leading macroeconomists from various persuasions, while attempting to stay agnostic and open-minded on the distribution of demand changes between real output and inflation, we have thus identified nominal GDP growth as the key final policy goal of monetary policy. The empirical research finds that the policy conducted by the Bank of Japan between 2001 and 2006 makes little empirical difference while an alternative policy targeting credit creation (the original definition of QE) would likely have been more successful.</description>
      <author>Konstantinos Voutsinas; Richard A. Werner</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24114</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 10:55:35 +0100</pubDate>
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      <title>The lessons from QE and other 'unconventional' monetary policies - evidence from the Bank of England</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24111</link>
      <description>This paper investigates the effectiveness of the ‘quantitative easing’ policy, as implemented by the Bank of England in March 2009. Similar policies had been previously implemented in Japan, the U.S. and the Eurozone. The effectiveness is measured by the impact of Bank of England policies (including, but not limited to QE) on nominal GDP growth – the declared goal of the policy, according to the Bank of England. Unlike the majority of the literature on the topic, the general-to-specific econometric modeling methodology (a.k.a. the ‘Hendry’ or ‘LSE’ methodology) is employed for this purpose. The empirical analysis indicates that QE as defined and announced in March 2009 had no apparent effect on the UK economy. Meanwhile, it is found that a policy of ‘quantitative easing’ defined in the original sense of the term (Werner, 1994) is supported by empirical evidence: a stable relationship between a lending aggregate (disaggregated M4 lending, i.e. bank credit for GDP transactions) and nominal GDP is found. The findings imply that BoE policy should more directly target the growth of bank credit for GDP-transactions.</description>
      <author>Victor Lyonnet; Richard A. Werner</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24111</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 10:41:51 +0100</pubDate>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24110</link>
      <description>We use data from the 2009 Internet Survey of the Health and Retirement Study to examine the consumption impact of wealth shocks and unemployment during the Great Recession in the US. We find that many households experienced large capital losses in housing and in their financial portfolios, and that a non-trivial fraction of respondents have lost their job. As a consequence of these shocks, many households reduced substantially their expenditures. We estimate that the marginal propensities to consume with respect to housing and financial wealth are 1 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition, those who became unemployed reduced spending by 10 percent. We also distinguish the effect of perceived transitory and permanent wealth shocks, splitting the sample between households who think that the stock market is likely to recover in a year’s time, and those who don’t. In line with the predictions of standard models of intertemporal choice, we find that the latter group adjusted much more than the former its spending in response to financial wealth shocks.</description>
      <author>Dimitris Christelis; Dimitris Georgarakos; Tullio Jappelli</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24110</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 10:32:50 +0100</pubDate>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Early life conditions and financial risk–taking in older age</title>
      <link>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24112</link>
      <description>Using life-history survey data from eleven European countries, we investigate whether childhood conditions, such as socioeconomic status, cognitive abilities and health problems influence portfolio choice and risk attitudes later in life. After controlling for the corresponding conditions in adulthood, we find that superior cognitive skills in childhood (especially mathematical abilities) are positively associated with stock and mutual fund ownership. Childhood socioeconomic status, as indicated by the number of rooms and by having at least some books in the house during childhood, is also positively associated with the ownership of stocks, mutual funds and individual retirement accounts, as well as with the willingness to take financial risks. On the other hand, less risky assets like bonds are not affected by early childhood conditions. We find only weak effects of childhood health problems on portfolio choice in adulthood. Finally, favorable childhood conditions affect the transition in and out of risky asset ownership, both by making divesting less likely and by facilitating investing (i.e., transitioning from non-ownership to ownership).</description>
      <author>Dimitris Christelis; Loretti I. Dobrescu; Alberto Motta</author>
      <category>workingpaper</category>
      <guid>http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/24112</guid>
      <pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2012 10:15:28 +0100</pubDate>
    </item>
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