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Among cyclic populations of herbivores, inter-specific temporal synchrony has been attributed to both climatic factors and trophic interactions. In northern Europe, winter and autumnal moths undergo regular 9–11 year population cycles. The winter moth cycle has typically been phase-locked with that of the autumnal moth, but with a 1–3- year phase lag. We examined potential effects of natural enemies on this phase lag using field experiments and observational data. We found that larval parasitism was significantly higher in autumnal than in winter moths. Conversely, pupal predation by generalist invertebrates was clearly greater in winter than in autumnal moths. The difference in parasitism rates may contribute to the earlier collapse of the autumnal moth cycle. In addition, the phase lag may be strengthened by higher pupal mortality in winter moths in the early increase phase of the cycles. As a consequence, we put forward a hypothesis on reversed effects of natural enemies, providing a potential explanation for phase-lagged population cycles of these moth species.
1. Generalist natural enemies are usually not considered as being capable of causing population cycles in forest insects, but they may influence the population dynamics of their prey in the low density cycle phase when specialist enemies are largely absent. 2. In the present field study, the total response of the generalist invertebrate predator community to experimentally established pupal densities of the closely related autumnal (Epirrita autumnata) and winter moths (Operophtera brumata) was analysed. 3. Due to the high amount of variation in the dataset, the exact shape of the response curve could not be convincingly estimated. Nevertheless, two important conclusions can be drawn from the analyses. 4. Firstly, the natural invertebrate predator community seems to become saturated at rather low densities of both autumnal and winter moth pupae. Secondly, the predator community seems to become saturated at much lower densities of autumnal than of winter moth pupae. 5. Furthermore, pupal mass was significantly negatively correlated with invertebrate predation probability in autumnal moth pupae. 6. These results indicate that differences in the predator assemblage being able to consume pupae of the two moth species, as well as different handling times, could be responsible for the substantially higher predation rates in winter than in autumnal moth pupae. 7. As a consequence, the population dynamics of autumnal moths might be less affected by generalist invertebrate predators than those of winter moths, as autumnal moths seem able to escape from the regulating influence of generalist predators at much lower population densities than winter moths.
In the literature, various environmental factors are described as being capable of influencing the reproductive output of insect females irrespective of their body size. Still, female body size or weight is widely used as a proxy for fecundity. In the present study, a seven-year data set on the autumnal moth, Epirrita autumnata (Borkhausen) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), was used to analyze whether the body weight-fecundity relationship in this capital breeding, cyclic forest defoliating lepidopteran is constant across years. Ambient temperature conditions and density of conspecifics during larval development, the length of the pupal period, as well as moth densities in the parent generation were examined as factors capable of modifying the body weight-fecundity relationship. While the regression slope of potential fecundity (total egg numbers per female) on pupal mass was constant across years, the mean total egg number per given body weight (the regression intercept) was significantly different between years. This residual variance in egg numbers after controlling for the effect of pupal mass was best explained by the pooled geometrid density (autumnal and winter moths) in the parent generation. The total egg number per given body weight decreased with increasing density of geometrid moths in the parent generation. Thus, maternal density effects on offspring fecundity were found in this system. Their rather weak nature suggests, however, that this maternal effect alone does not have the potential of causing cyclic population dynamics in the autumnal moth.