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Sesquiterpenes (C15H24) are semi-volatile organic compounds emitted by vegetation and are of interest in atmospheric research because they influence the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere and contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosols. However, little is known about their emission pattern and no established parameterisation is available for global emission models. The aim of this study is to investigate a Central European spruce forest and its emission response to meteorological and environmental parameters, looking for a parameterisation that incorporates heat and oxidative stress as the main driving forces of the induced emissions. Therefore, a healthy ca. 80 yr old Norway spruce (Picea abies) tree was selected and a dynamical vegetation enclosure technique was applied from April to November 2011. The emissions clearly responded to temperature changes with small variations in the β-factor along the year (βspring = 0.09 ± 0.01, βsummer = 0.12 ± 0.02, βautumn = 0.11 ± 0.02). However, daily calculated values revealed a vast amount of variability in temperature dependencies ((0.02 ± 0.002) < β < (0.27 ± 0.04)) with no distinct seasonality.
By separating the complete dataset in 10 different ozone regimes, we found that in moderately or less polluted atmospheric conditions the main driving force of sesquiterpene emissions is the temperature, but when ambient ozone mixing ratios exceed a critical threshold of (36.6 ± 3.9) ppbv, the emissions become primarily correlated with ozone. Considering the complete dataset, cross correlation analysis resulted in highest correlation with ambient ozone mixing ratios (CCO3 = 0.63 ± 0.01; CCT = 0.47 ± 0.02 at t = 0 h for temperature) with a time shift 2–4 h prior to the emissions. An only temperature dependent algorithm was found to substantially underestimate the induced emissions (20% of the measured; R2 = 0.31). However, the addition of an ozone dependent term improved substantially the fitting between measured and modelled emissions (81% of the modelled emissions could be explained by the measurements; R2 = 0.63), providing confidence about the reliability of the suggested parameterisation for the spruce forest site investigated.
Die Wechselwirkung zwischen zwei verschiedenartigen Wellenphänomenen in einer Höhe von ca. 10 bis 100 km, der mittleren Atmosphäre, ist das zentrale Thema der vorliegenden Arbeit. Schwerewellen entstehen durch Oszillationen der Luft in einer stabil geschichteten Atmosphäre. Durch die Vielzahl von Schwerewellen-Paketen, die in der Troposphäre durch Gebirge, Gewitter, Fronten und andere dynamische Prozesse angeregt werden, wird Energie und Impuls in die mittleren Atmosphäre transportiert. Durch den turbulenten Zerfall von brechenden Schwerewellen wird auf die mittlere Strömung eine Kraft ausgeübt, welche im Bereich der Mesopause bei ca. 90 km maximal wird. Daraus resultiert die sogenannte interhemispherische residuelle Zirkulation, die in der Mesosphäre den Sommer- mit dem Winterpol verbindet und die beeindruckend kalte Sommer-Mesopause mit Temperaturen von unter −140°C verursacht. Thermische Gezeiten sind ein weiterer wichtiger Teil in der Dynamik der mittleren Atmosphäre. Sie werden durch die Erwärmung der Tagseite der Erde angeregt und sind globale Schwingungen mit Perioden von 24 Stunden und harmonischen Vielfachen. Mit Wind- und Temperatur-Amplituden von bis zu 50 m/s und 30 K dominieren sie die Tagesvariabilität im Mesopausen-Bereich.
In der Mesosphäre wird die Wechselwirkung zwischen Schwerewellen und thermischen Gezeiten wichtig. Dort wird durch die Gezeitenwinde das Brechen von Schwerewellen zeitlich moduliert und eine periodische Kraft erzeugt, welche auf die Gezeiten rückwirkt. Doch selbst unter Zuhilfenahme modernster Hochleistungsrechner kann in komplexen Zirkulationsmodellen nur ein Bruchteil des turbulenten sowie des Wellen-Spektrums aufgelöst werden. Der Effekt der nichtaufgelösten Skalen, wie Turbulenz und Schwerewellen, muss somit in effizienter Weise parametrisiert werden. Üblicherweise wird in Schwerewellen-Parametrisierungen die horizontale und zeitliche Variation des Hintergrundmediums vernachlässigt. Es entsteht eine vertikale Säule, in der sich stationäre Schwerewellen-Züge instantan nach oben ausbreiten. Es ist jedoch äußerst fraglich, inwieweit eine solche Beschreibung, auf der ein Großteil früherer Untersuchungen basiert, für das Ergründen der Schwerewellen-Gezeiten-Wechselwirkung hinreicht. Für diese Arbeit wurde deswegen das Ziel gesetzt, die Defizite der konventionellen Beschreibung der Schwerewellen-Ausbreitung in realistischen Gezeiten zu quantifizieren.
Die "Ray Tracing"-Methode wird auf die Problemstellung der Schwerewellen-Gezeiten-Wechselwirkung angewendet. In der "Ray Tracing"-Methode werden Schwerewellen-Pakete entlang ihrer Ausbreitungspfade explizit verfolgt und Veränderungen der Schwerewellen-Eigenschaften durch den Einfluss der Hintergrundströmung berücksichtigt. Vom Autor wurde das globale "Ray Tracing"-Modell RAPAGI (RAy PArameterization of Gravity-wave Impacts) entwickelt und mit realistischen Gezeitenfeldern aus dem Zirkulationsmodell HAMMONIA (HAmburg MOdel of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere) betrieben. In verschiedenen "Ray Tracing"-Experimenten wird für ein einfaches Schwerewellen-Ensemble gezeigt, wie horizontale Gradienten des Hintergrundmediums sowie dessen Zeitabhängigkeit wesentlichen Einfluss auf die Ausbreitung und Dissipation von Schwerewellen nehmen. Zum einen führt die durch Gezeitenwellen hervorgerufene Transienz zu einer tageszeitlichen Modulation der absoluten Schwerewellen-Frequenz.
Die dadurch induzierten Variationen der horizontalen Phasengeschwindigkeit der Schwerewellen können die anfängliche Phasengeschwindigkeit um bis zu eine Größenordnung übertreffen und folgen dem Verlauf des Hintergrundwindes. Die kritische Filterung von Schwerewellen wird durch diese Modulation abgeschwächt, was im Vergleich zu konventionellen Schwerewellen-Parametrisierungen zu einer im Mittel um 30 % geringeren Kraftwirkung auf die Gezeiten führt. Zum anderen werden durch horizontale Gradienten in der gesamten Hintergrundströmung Schwerewellen-Pakete horizontal abgelenkt. Wellen, die gegen die Hintergrundströmung laufen, werden in der Stratosphäre in die Maxima der Wind-Jets hineingeführt. Durch dieses Verhalten wird analog zum Fermatschen Prinzip der geometrischen Optik die Laufzeit der Schwerewellen in der mittleren Atmosphäre minimiert. Es entsteht eine Fokussierung von Schwerewellen-Feldern, bei gleichzeitiger Zunahme der horizontalen Wellenzahl in den Experimenten im Mittel um ca. 10 %. Dadurch reduziert sich der Schwerewellen-Impulsfluss und die mittlere und ebenfalls die periodische Kraft auf die Hintergrundströmung im Mittel um weitere 20 % bis 30 %. Konventionelle Schwerewellen-Parametrisierungen scheinen somit die Kraftwirkung von brechenden Schwerewellen zu uberschätzen. Aus den Ergebnissen der Arbeit wird klar, dass Schwerewellen-Parametrisierungen nicht "blind" für jede Untersuchung genutzt werden können. Alle Annahmen und Näherungen in Parametrisierungen müssen je nach Zielstellung neu getestet werden.
Sesquiterpenes (C15H24) are semi-volatile organic compounds emitted by vegetation and are of interest in atmospheric research because they influence the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere and contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosols. However, little is known about their emission pattern and no established parameterization is available for global emission models. The aim of this study is to investigate a Central European spruce forest and its emission response to meteorological and environmental parameters, looking for a parameterization that incorporates heat and oxidative stress as the main driving forces of the induced emissions. Therefore, a healthy ca. 80 yr old Norway spruce (Picea abies) tree was selected and a dynamical vegetation enclosure technique was applied from April to November 2011. The emissions clearly responded to temperature changes with small variations in the β-factor along the year (βspring=0.09 ± 0.01, βsummer=0.12 ± 0.02, βautumn=0.11 ± 0.02). However, daily calculated values revealed a vast amount of variability in temperature dependencies ((0.02 ± 0.002)< β<(0.27 ± 0.04)) with no distinct seasonality.
By separating the complete dataset in 10 different ozone regimes, we found that in moderately or less polluted atmospheric conditions the main driving force of sesquiterpene emissions is the temperature, but when ambient ozone mixing ratios exceed a~critical threshold of (36.6 ± 3.9) ppbv, the emissions become primarily correlated with ozone. Considering the complete dataset, cross correlation analysis resulted in highest correlation with ambient ozone mixing ratios (CCO3=0.63 ± 0.01; CCT=0.47 ± 0.02 at t=0 h for temperature) with a time shift 2–4 h prior to the emissions. An only temperature dependent algorithm was found to substantially underestimate the induced emissions (20 % of the measured; R2=0.31). However, the addition of an ozone dependent term improved substantially the fitting between measured and modeled emissions (81 % of the measured; R2=0.63), providing confidence about the reliability of the suggested parameterization for the spruce forest site investigated.
Introduction: The aim of this study was to clinically assess the capacity of a novel bovine pericardium based, non-cross linked collagen matrix in root coverage.
Methods: 62 gingival recessions of Miller class I or II were treated. The matrix was adapted underneath a coronal repositioned split thickness flap. Clinical values were assessed at baseline and after six months.
Results: The mean recession in each patient was 2.2 mm at baseline. 6 Months after surgery 86.7% of the exposed root surfaces were covered. On average 0,3 mm of recession remained. The clinical attachment level changed from 3.5 ± 1.3 mm to 1,8 ( ± 0,7) mm during the observational time period. No statistically significant difference was found in the difference of probing depth. An increase in the width of gingiva was significant. With a baseline value of 1.5 ± 0.9 mm an improvement of 2.4 ± 0.8 mm after six month could be observed. 40 out of 62 recessions were considered a thin biotype at baseline. After 6 months all 62 sites were assessed thick.
Conclusions: The results demonstrate the capacity of the bovine pericardium based non-cross linked collagen matrix for successful root coverage. This material was able to enhance gingival thickness and the width of keratinized gingiva. The percentage of root coverage achieved thereby is comparable to existing techniques. This method might contribute to an increase of patient's comfort and an enhanced aesthetical outcome.
We have analysed the microseismic activity within the Rwenzori Mountains area in the western branch of the East African Rift. Seismogram recordings from a temporary array of up to 27 stations reveal approximately 800 events per month with local magnitudes ranging from –0.5 to 5.1. The earthquake distribution is highly heterogeneous. The majority of located events lie within faults zones to the east and west of the Rwenzoris with the highest seismic activity observed in the northeastern area, where the mountains are in contact with the rift shoulders. The hypocentral depth distribution exhibits a pronounced peak of seismic energy release at 15 km depth. The maximum extent of seismicity ranges from 20 to 32 km and correlates well with Moho depths that were derived from teleseismic receiver functions. We observe two general features: (i) beneath the rift shoulders, seismicity extends from the surface down to ca. 30 km depth; (ii) beneath the rift valley, seismicity is confined to depths greater than 10 km. From the observations there is no indication for a crustal root beneath the Rwenzori Mountains. The magnitude frequency distribution reveals a b-value of 1.1, which is consistent with the hypothesis that part of the seismicity is caused by magmatic processes within the crust. Fault plane solutions of 304 events were derived from P-polarities and SV/P amplitude ratios. More than 70 % of the source mechanisms exhibit pure or predominantly normal faulting. T-axis trends are highly uniform and oriented WNW–ESE, which is perpendicular to the rift axis and in good agreement with kinematic rift models. At the northernmost part of the region we observe a rotation of the T-axis trends to NEN–SWS, which may be indicative of a local perturbation of the regional stress field.
Assessing the uncertainties of simulation results of ecological models is becoming of increasing importance, specifically if these models are used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions at site to regional/national levels. Four general sources of uncertainty effect the outcome of process-based models: (i) uncertainty of information used to initialise and drive the model, (ii) uncertainty of model parameters describing specific ecosystem processes, (iii) uncertainty of the model structure and (iv) accurateness of measurements (e.g. soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange) which are used for model testing and development.
The aim of our study was to assess the simulation uncertainty of the process-based biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. For this we set up a Bayesian framework using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to estimate the joint model parameter distribution. Data for model testing, parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment were taken from observations of soil fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO), and carbon dioxide (CO2) as observed over a 10 yr period at the spruce site of the Höglwald Forest, Germany. By running four independent Markov Chains in parallel with identical properties (except for the parameter start values), an objective criteria for chain convergence developed by Gelman et al. (2003) could be used.
Our approach showed that by means of the joined parameter distribution, we were able not only to limit the parameter space and specify the probability of parameter values, but also to assess the complex dependencies among model parameters used for simulating soil C and N trace gas emissions. This helped to improve the understanding of the behaviour of the complex LandscapeDNDC model while simulating soil C and N turnover processes and associated C and N soil-atmosphere exchange.
In a final step the parameter distribution of the most sensitive parameters determining soil-atmosphere C and N exchange were used to obtain the parameter-induced uncertainty of simulated N2O, NO and CO2 emissions. These were compared to observational data of the calibration set (6 yr) and an independent validation set of 4 yr.
The comparison showed that most of the annual observed trace gas emissions were in the range of simulated values and were predicted with a high certainty (Residual mean squared error (RMSE) NO: 2.5 to 21.3 g N ha−1 d−1, N2O: 0.2 to 21.4 g N ha−1 d−1, CO2: 5.8 to 12.6 kg C ha−1 d−1). However, LandscapeDNDC simulations were sometimes limited to accurately predict observed seasonal variations in fluxes.
Assessing the uncertainties of simulation results of ecological models is becoming increasingly important, specifically if these models are used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions on site to regional/national levels. Four general sources of uncertainty effect the outcome of process-based models: (i) uncertainty of information used to initialise and drive the model, (ii) uncertainty of model parameters describing specific ecosystem processes, (iii) uncertainty of the model structure, and (iv) accurateness of measurements (e.g., soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange) which are used for model testing and development.
The aim of our study was to assess the simulation uncertainty of the process-based biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. For this we set up a Bayesian framework using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to estimate the joint model parameter distribution. Data for model testing, parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment were taken from observations of soil fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) as observed over a 10 yr period at the spruce site of the Höglwald Forest, Germany. By running four independent Markov Chains in parallel with identical properties (except for the parameter start values), an objective criteria for chain convergence developed by Gelman et al. (2003) could be used.
Our approach shows that by means of the joint parameter distribution, we were able not only to limit the parameter space and specify the probability of parameter values, but also to assess the complex dependencies among model parameters used for simulating soil C and N trace gas emissions. This helped to improve the understanding of the behaviour of the complex LandscapeDNDC model while simulating soil C and N turnover processes and associated C and N soil-atmosphere exchange. In a final step the parameter distribution of the most sensitive parameters determining soil-atmosphere C and N exchange were used to obtain the parameter-induced uncertainty of simulated N2O, NO and CO2 emissions. These were compared to observational data of an calibration set (6 yr) and an independent validation set of 4 yr. The comparison showed that most of the annual observed trace gas emissions were in the range of simulated values and were predicted with a high certainty (Root-mean-squared error (RMSE) NO: 2.4 to 18.95 g N ha−1 d−1, N2O: 0.14 to 21.12 g N ha−1 d−1, CO2: 5.4 to 11.9 kg C ha−1 d−1). However, LandscapeDNDC simulations were sometimes still limited to accurately predict observed seasonal variations in fluxes.
Background: The posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) plays an important role in maintaining physiological kinematics and function of the knee joint. To date mainly in-vitro models or combined magnetic resonance and fluoroscopic systems have been used for quantifying the importance of the PCL. We hypothesized, that both tibiofemoral and patellofemoral kinematic patterns are changed in PCL-deficient knees, which is increased by isometric muscle flexion. Therefore the aim of this study was to simultaneously investigate tibiofemoral and patellofemoral 3D kinematics in patients suffering from PCL deficiency during different knee flexion angles and under neuromuscular activation.
Methods: We enrolled 12 patients with isolated PCL-insufficiency as well as 20 healthy volunteers. Sagittal MR-images of the knee joint were acquired in different positions of the knee joint (0[degree sign], 30[degree sign], 90[degree sign] flexion, with and without flexing isometric muscle activity) on a 0.2 Tesla open MR-scanner. After segmentation of the patella, femur and tibia local coordinate systems were established to define the spatial position of these structures in relation to each other.
Results: At full extension and 30[degree sign] flexion no significant difference was observed in PCL-deficient knee joints neither for tibiofemoral nor for patellofemoral kinematics. At 90[degree sign] flexion the femur of PCL-deficient patients was positioned significantly more anteriorly in relation to the tibia and both, the patellar tilt and the patellar shift to the lateral side, significantly increased compared to healthy knee joints. While no significant effect of isometric flexing muscle activity was observed in healthy individuals, in PCL-deficient knee joints an increased paradoxical anterior translation of the femur was observed at 90[degree sign] flexion compared to the status of muscle relaxation.
Conclusions: Significant changes in tibiofemoral and patellofemoral joint kinematics occur in patients with isolated PCL-insufficiency above 30 degrees of flexion compared to healthy volunteers. Since this could be one reasonable mechanism in the development of OA our results might help to understand the long-term development of tibiofemoral and/or patellofemoral osteoarthritis in PCL-insufficient knee joints.
Background: Febrile neutropenia is a frequently occurring and occasionally life-threatening complication of treatment for childhood cancer. Many biomarkers have been proposed as predictors of adverse events. We aimed to undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize evidence on the discriminatory ability of initial serum biomarkers of febrile neutropenic episodes in children and young people.
Methods: This review was conducted in accordance with the Center for Reviews and Dissemination Methods, using three random effects models to undertake meta-analysis. It was registered with the HTA Registry of systematic reviews, CRD32009100485.
Results: We found that 25 studies exploring 14 different biomarkers were assessed in 3,585 episodes of febrile neutropenia. C-reactive protein (CRP), pro-calcitonin (PCT), and interleukin-6 (IL6) were subject to quantitative meta-analysis, and revealed huge inconsistencies and heterogeneity in the studies included in this review. Only CRP has been evaluated in assessing its value over the predictive value of simple clinical decision rules.
Conclusions: The limited data available describing the predictive value of biomarkers in the setting of pediatric febrile neutropenia mean firm conclusions cannot yet be reached, although the use of IL6, IL8 and procalcitonin warrant further study.
There is increasing evidence that climate change will have a severe impact on species’ distributions by altering the climatic conditions within their present ranges. Especially species inhabiting stream ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected due to warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. The aim of this thesis was to
investigate how distributions of aquatic insects, i.e., benthic stream macroinvertebrates would be impacted by warming climates. The methods comprised of an ensemble forecasting technique based on species distribution models (SDMs) and climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the year 2080. Future model projections were generated for a wide variety of species from a number of taxonomic orders for two spatial scales: a stream network within the lower mountain ranges of Germany, and the entire territory across Europe. In addition, the effect of the modelling technique on habitat suitability projections was investigated by modifying the choice of study area (continuous area vs. stream network) and the choice of predictors (standard vs. corrected set).
Projections of future habitat suitability showed that potential climate-change impacts would be dependent on species’ thermal preferences, and with a similar pattern for both spatial scales. Future habitat suitability was projected to remain for most or all of the modelled species, and species were projected to track their climatically suitable conditions by shifting uphill along the river continuum within the lower mountain ranges, and into a north-easterly direction across Europe. Cold-adapted headwater and high-latitude species were projected to lose suitable habitats, whereas gains would be expected for warm-adapted river and low-latitude species along the river continuum and across Europe, respectively. Additionally, habitat specialist species in terms of endemics of the Iberian Peninsula were identified as potential climate-change losers, highlighting their restricted habitat availability and therefore vulnerability to warming climates.
The main findings of this thesis underline the high susceptibility of stream macroinvertebrates to ongoing climate change, and give insights into patterns of possible consequences due to changes in species’ habitat suitability. Concerning the methodology, a clear recommendation can be given for future modelling approaches of stream macroinvertebrates by building models within a stream network and with a careful choice of environmental predictors, to reduce uncertainties and thus to improve model projections.