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When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901–2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971–2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. These simulation results support the need for extended Q measurements and data sharing for better constraining global water balance assessments. Over the 20th century, the human footprint on natural water resources has become larger. For 11–18% of the global land area, the change of Q between 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 was driven more strongly by change of human water use including dam construction than by change in precipitation, while this was true for only 9–13 % of the land area from 1911–1940 to 1941–1970.
When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know the methodological uncertainties in the water resources estimates. The study presented here quantifies effects of the uncertainty in the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological variables on water balance components at the global, continental and grid cell scale by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISI-MIP 2.1) with five state-of-the-art climate forcing input data-sets. While global precipitation over land during 1971–2000 varies between 103 500 and 111 000 km3 yr−1, global river discharge varies between 39 200 and 42 200 km3 yr−1. Temporal trends of global wa- ter balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing (except human water abstractions), and there is a need for temporal homogenization of climate forcings (in particular WFD/WFDEI). On about 10–20 % of the global land area, change of river discharge between two consecutive 30 year periods was driven more strongly by changes of human water use including dam construction than by changes in precipitation. This number increases towards the end of the 20th century due to intensified human water use and dam construction. The calibration approach of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated river discharge significantly. Different homgeneous climate forcings lead to a variation of Q of only 1.6 % for the 54 % of global land area that are constrained by discharge observations, while estimated renewable water resources in the remaining uncalibrated regions vary by 18.5 %. Uncertainties are especially high in Southeast Asia where Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) data availability is very sparse. By sharing already available discharge data, or installing new streamflow gauging stations in such regions, water balance uncertainties could be reduced which would lead to an improved assessment of the world’s water resources.
The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean). Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.
The estimation of water balance components as well as water-related indicators on the land surface by means of global hydrological models have evolved in recent decades. Results of such models are frequently used in global- and continental-scale assessments of the current and future state of the terrestrial water cycle and provide a valuable data basis, e.g., for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The Water – Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP) model is one of the state-of-the-art models in that field and has been in development and application for around 20 years. The evaluation, modification and application of WaterGAP is the subject of this thesis. In particular, the sensitivity of climate input data on radiation calculation and simulated water fluxes and storages is evaluated in the first part. Effects of model modification such as updated spatial input datasets, improved process representation or an alternative calibration scheme are the focus of the second part. Finally, three applications of WaterGAP give insight into the capabilities of that model, namely an estimate of global and continental water balance components, an assessment of groundwater depletion and the impact of climate change on river flow regimes. Model experiments, which are described in six journal papers as well as the appendices, were used as the basis for answering the total of 13 research questions. One of the major foci was to quantify the sensitivity of simulated water fluxes and storages to alternative climate input data. It was found that the handling of precipitation undercatch leads to the greatest difference in water balance components, especially in those areas where WaterGAP is not calibrated due to a lack of river discharge observations. The modifications of WaterGAP in the last few decades has led in general to an improved simulation of monthly river discharge, but process representation in semi-arid and arid regions still requires improvements. With the most current model version, WaterGAP 2.2b, and for the time period 1971–2000, river discharge to the oceans and inland sinks is estimated to be 40 000 km3 yr-1, whereas actual evapotranspiration is simulated as 70 500 km3 yr-1. Future research needs for WaterGAP in particular but also for the global hydrological model community in general are defined, promoting a community-driven effort for a robust assessment of the continental water cycle.
Although it has been suggested that temperature increase may alter the toxic potential of environmental pollutants, few studies have investigated the potential risk of chemical stressors for wildlife under Global Climate Change (GCC) impact. We applied a bifactorial multigeneration study in order to test if GCC conditions alter the effects of low pesticide concentrations on life history and genetic diversity of the aquatic model organism Chironomus riparius. Experimental populations of the species were chronically exposed to a low concentration of the fungicide pyrimethanil (half of the no-observed-adverse-effect concentration: NOAEC/2) under two dynamic present-day temperature simulations (11.0–22.7°C; 14.0–25.2°C) and one future scenario (16.5–28.1°C). During the 140-day multigeneration study, survival, emergence, reproduction, population growth, and genetic diversity of C. riparius were analyzed. Our results reveal that high temperature and pyrimethanil act synergistically on the midge C. riparius. In simulated present-day scenarios, a NOAEC/2 of pyrimethanil as derived from a life-cycle toxicity test provoked only slight-to-moderate beneficial or adverse effects on C. riparius. In contrast, exposure to a NOAEC/2 concentration of pyrimethanil at a thermal situation likely for a summer under GCC conditions uncovered adverse effects on mortality and population growth rate. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably reduced by pyrimethanil in the future scenario, but only slightly under current climatic conditions. Our multigeneration study under near-natural (climatic) conditions indicates that not only the impact of climate change, but also low concentrations of pesticides may pose a reasonable risk for aquatic insects in future.
Background: The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is an extremely invasive, globally distributed and medically important vector of various human and veterinary pathogens. In Germany, where this species was recently introduced, its establishment may become modulated by interspecific competition from autochthonous mosquito species, especially Culex pipiens (s.l.). While competitive superiority of Ae. albopictus to Cx. pipiens (s.l.) has been described elsewhere, it has not been assessed in the epidemiological conditions of Germany. The present study aimed to determine if such superiority exists under the physicochemical and microclimatic conditions typical for container habitats in Germany.
Methods: In a replacement series experiment, the larval and pupal responses of Ae. albopictus and Cx. pipiens (s.l.) (mortality, development time, growth) to interspecific interaction (five larval ratios) at (sub-)optimal temperatures (15, 20 and 25 °C) and differing food supply (3 and 6 mg animal-based food larva-1) were investigated using a randomized split-plot design. In addition to physicochemical measurements of the test media, natural physicochemical conditions were determined for comparative analyses in mosquito breeding sites across the Rhine-Main metropolitan region of Germany.
Results: Under the physicochemical and microclimatic conditions similar to the breeding sites of the Rhine-Main region, competitive superiority of Cx. pipiens (s.l.) to Ae. albopictus in terms of larval survival was more frequently observed than balanced coexistence. Food regime and multifactorial interactions, but not temperature alone, were controlling factors for interspecific competition. Larval food regime and the larval ratio of Ae. albopictus influenced the physicochemistry and algal growth at 15 °C, with increased Ae. albopictus mortality linked to a decreasing number of Scenedesmus, Oocystis and Anabaena algae.
Conclusions: Under the present environmental conditions, the spread of Ae. albopictus from isolated foci in Germany may generally be slowed by biotic interactions with the ubiquitous Cx. pipiens (s.l.) (and potentially other container-breeding mosquito species) and by limnic microalgae in microhabitats with high resource levels. Detailed knowledge of the context dependency in temperate mosquito ecology, and interrelations of physicochemistry and phycology may help to achieve a better understanding of the upcoming Ae. albopictus colonization processes in central and northern Europe.
The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is currently spreading across Europe, facilitated by climate change and global transportation. It is a vector of arboviruses causing human diseases such as chikungunya, dengue hemorrhagic fever and Zika fever. For the majority of these diseases, no vaccines or therapeutics are available. Options for the control of Ae. albopictus are limited by European regulations introduced to protect biodiversity by restricting or phasing out the use of pesticides, genetically modified organisms (GMOs) or products of genome editing. Alternative solutions are thus urgently needed to avoid a future scenario in which Europe faces a choice between prioritizing human health or biodiversity when it comes to Aedes-vectored pathogens. To ensure regulatory compliance and public acceptance, these solutions should preferably not be based on chemicals or GMOs and must be cost-efficient and specific. The present review aims to synthesize available evidence on RNAi-based mosquito vector control and its potential for application in the European Union. The recent literature has identified some potential target sites in Ae. albopictus and formulations for delivery. However, we found little information concerning non-target effects on the environment or human health, on social aspects, regulatory frameworks, or on management perspectives. We propose optimal designs for RNAi-based vector control tools against Ae. albopictus (target product profiles), discuss their efficacy and reflect on potential risks to environmental health and the importance of societal aspects. The roadmap from design to application will provide readers with a comprehensive perspective on the application of emerging RNAi-based vector control tools for the suppression of Ae. albopictus populations with special focus on Europe.
ANGIOGENES : knowledge database for protein-coding and noncoding RNA genes in endothelial cells
(2016)
Increasing evidence indicates the presence of long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) is specific to various cell types. Although lncRNAs are speculated to be more numerous than protein-coding genes, the annotations of lncRNAs remain primitive due to the lack of well-structured schemes for their identification and description. Here, we introduce a new knowledge database “ANGIOGENES” (http://angiogenes.uni-frankfurt.de) to allow for in silico screening of protein-coding genes and lncRNAs expressed in various types of endothelial cells, which are present in all tissues. Using the latest annotations of protein-coding genes and lncRNAs, publicly-available RNA-seq data was analyzed to identify transcripts that are expressed in endothelial cells of human, mouse and zebrafish. The analyzed data were incorporated into ANGIOGENES to provide a one-stop-shop for transcriptomics data to facilitate further biological validation. ANGIOGENES is an intuitive and easy-to-use database to allow in silico screening of expressed, enriched and/or specific endothelial transcripts under various conditions. We anticipate that ANGIOGENES serves as a starting point for functional studies to elucidate the roles of protein-coding genes and lncRNAs in angiogenesis.