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#### Institute

- Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (18) (remove)

- Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics (2009)
- We model the dynamics of ask and bid curves in a limit order book market using a dynamic semiparametric factor model. The shape of the curves is captured by a factor structure which is estimated nonparametrically. Corresponding factor loadings are assumed to follow multivariate dynamics and are modelled using a vector autoregressive model. Applying the framework to four stocks traded at the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2002, we show that the suggested model captures the spatial and temporal dependencies of the limit order book. Relating the shape of the curves to variables reflecting the current state of the market, we show that the recent liquidity demand has the strongest impact. In an extensive forecasting analysis we show that the model is successful in forecasting the liquidity supply over various time horizons during a trading day. Moreover, it is shown that the model’s forecasting power can be used to improve optimal order execution strategies. Keywords: Limit Order Book, Liquidity Risk, Semiparametric Model, Factor Structure, Prediction

- Financial network systemic risk contributions (2013)
- We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure for financial companies’ contribution to systemic risk given network interdependence between firms’ tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market as well as balance sheet information, we define the realized systemic risk beta as the total time-varying marginal effect of a firm’s Value-at-risk (VaR) on the system’s VaR. Statistical inference reveals a multitude of relevant risk spillover channels and determines companies’ systemic importance in the U.S. financial system. Our approach can be used to monitor companies’ systemic importance allowing for a transparent macroprudential supervision.

- Analyzing interest rate risk : stochastic volatility in the term structure of government bond yields (2009)
- We propose a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model where the underlying yield factors follow autoregressive processes with stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities parsimoniously capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying uncertainty of the yield curve’s level, slope and curvature. Estimating the model based on U.S. government bond yields applying Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques we find that the factor volatilities follow highly persistent processes. We show that slope and curvature risk have explanatory power for bond excess returns and illustrate that the yield and volatility factors are closely related to industrial capacity utilization, inflation, monetary policy and employment growth. JEL Classification: C5, E4, G1

- Efficient iterative maximum likelihood estimation of high-parameterized time series models (2014)
- We propose an iterative procedure to efficiently estimate models with complex log-likelihood functions and the number of parameters relative to the observations being potentially high. Given consistent but inefficient estimates of sub-vectors of the parameter vector, the procedure yields computationally tractable, consistent and asymptotic efficient estimates of all parameters. We show the asymptotic normality and derive the estimator's asymptotic covariance in dependence of the number of iteration steps. To mitigate the curse of dimensionality in high-parameterized models, we combine the procedure with a penalization approach yielding sparsity and reducing model complexity. Small sample properties of the estimator are illustrated for two time series models in a simulation study. In an empirical application, we use the proposed method to estimate the connectedness between companies by extending the approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) to a high-dimensional non-Gaussian setting.

- Capturing the zero: a new class of zero-augmented distributions and multiplicative error processes (2010)
- We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed on high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes or the time between potentially simultaneously occurring market events. We introduce a flexible pointmass mixture distribution and develop a semiparametric specification test explicitly tailored for such distributions. Moreover, we propose a new type of multiplicative error model (MEM) based on a zero-augmented distribution, which incorporates an autoregressive binary choice component and thus captures the (potentially different) dynamics of both zero occurrences and of strictly positive realizations. Applying the proposed model to high-frequency cumulated trading volumes of liquid NYSE stocks, we show that the model captures both the dynamic and distribution properties of the data very well and is able to correctly predict future distributions. Keywords: High-frequency Data , Point-mass Mixture , Multiplicative Error Model , Excess Zeros , Semiparametric Specification Test , Market Microstructure JEL Classification: C22, C25, C14, C16, C51

- Capturing the zero: a new class of zero-augmented distributions and multiplicative error processes (2011)
- We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed at high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes. We introduce a flexible point-mass mixture distribution and develop a semiparametric specification test explicitly tailored for such distributions. Moreover, we propose a new type of multiplicative error model (MEM) based on a zero-augmented distribution, which incorporates an autoregressive binary choice component and thus captures the (potentially different) dynamics of both zero occurrences and of strictly positive realizations. Applying the proposed model to high-frequency cumulated trading volumes of both liquid and illiquid NYSE stocks, we show that the model captures the dynamic and distributional properties of the data well and is able to correctly predict future distributions.

- A blocking and regularization approach to high dimensional realized covariance estimation (2009)
- We introduce a regularization and blocking estimator for well-conditioned high-dimensional daily covariances using high-frequency data. Using the Barndorff-Nielsen, Hansen, Lunde, and Shephard (2008a) kernel estimator, we estimate the covariance matrix block-wise and regularize it. A data-driven grouping of assets of similar trading frequency ensures the reduction of data loss due to refresh time sampling. In an extensive simulation study mimicking the empirical features of the S&P 1500 universe we show that the ’RnB’ estimator yields efficiency gains and outperforms competing kernel estimators for varying liquidity settings, noise-to-signal ratios, and dimensions. An empirical application of forecasting daily covariances of the S&P 500 index confirms the simulation results. Keywords: Covariance Estimation, Blocking, Realized Kernel, Regularization, Microstructure, Asynchronous Trading

- The merit of high-frequency data in portfolio allocation (2011)
- This paper addresses the open debate about the usefulness of high-frequency (HF) data in large-scale portfolio allocation. Daily covariances are estimated based on HF data of the S&P 500 universe employing a blocked realized kernel estimator. We propose forecasting covariance matrices using a multi-scale spectral decomposition where volatilities, correlation eigenvalues and eigenvectors evolve on different frequencies. In an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study, we show that the proposed approach yields less risky and more diversified portfolio allocations as prevailing methods employing daily data. These performance gains hold over longer horizons than previous studies have shown.

- The market impact of a limit order (2009)
- Despite their importance in modern electronic trading, virtually no systematic empirical evidence on the market impact of incoming orders is existing. We quantify the short-run and long-run price effect of posting a limit order by proposing a high-frequency cointegrated VAR model for ask and bid quotes and several levels of order book depth. Price impacts are estimated by means of appropriate impulse response functions. Analyzing order book data of 30 stocks traded at Euronext Amsterdam, we show that limit orders have significant market impacts and cause a dynamic (and typically asymmetric) rebalancing of the book. The strength and direction of quote and spread responses depend on the incoming orders’ aggressiveness, their size and the state of the book. We show that the effects are qualitatively quite stable across the market. Cross-sectional variations in the magnitudes of price impacts are well explained by the underlying trading frequency and relative tick size. Keywords: Price Impact, Limit Order, Impulse Response Function, Cointegration

- On the dark side of the market: identifying and analyzing hidden order placements (2012)
- Trading under limited pre-trade transparency becomes increasingly popular on financial markets. We provide first evidence on traders’ use of (completely) hidden orders which might be placed even inside of the (displayed) bid-ask spread. Employing TotalView-ITCH data on order messages at NASDAQ, we propose a simple method to conduct statistical inference on the location of hidden depth and to test economic hypotheses. Analyzing a wide cross-section of stocks, we show that market conditions reflected by the (visible) bid-ask spread, (visible) depth, recent price movements and trading signals significantly affect the aggressiveness of ’dark’ liquidity supply and thus the ’hidden spread’. Our evidence suggests that traders balance hidden order placements to (i) compete for the provision of (hidden) liquidity and (ii) protect themselves against adverse selection, front-running as well as ’hidden order detection strategies’ used by high-frequency traders. Accordingly, our results show that hidden liquidity locations are predictable given the observable state of the market.