- Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (15) (remove)
- The merit of high-frequency data in portfolio allocation (2011)
- This paper addresses the open debate about the usefulness of high-frequency (HF) data in large-scale portfolio allocation. Daily covariances are estimated based on HF data of the S&P 500 universe employing a blocked realized kernel estimator. We propose forecasting covariance matrices using a multi-scale spectral decomposition where volatilities, correlation eigenvalues and eigenvectors evolve on different frequencies. In an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study, we show that the proposed approach yields less risky and more diversified portfolio allocations as prevailing methods employing daily data. These performance gains hold over longer horizons than previous studies have shown.
- The market impact of a limit order (2009)
- Despite their importance in modern electronic trading, virtually no systematic empirical evidence on the market impact of incoming orders is existing. We quantify the short-run and long-run price effect of posting a limit order by proposing a high-frequency cointegrated VAR model for ask and bid quotes and several levels of order book depth. Price impacts are estimated by means of appropriate impulse response functions. Analyzing order book data of 30 stocks traded at Euronext Amsterdam, we show that limit orders have significant market impacts and cause a dynamic (and typically asymmetric) rebalancing of the book. The strength and direction of quote and spread responses depend on the incoming orders’ aggressiveness, their size and the state of the book. We show that the effects are qualitatively quite stable across the market. Cross-sectional variations in the magnitudes of price impacts are well explained by the underlying trading frequency and relative tick size. JEL-Classifications: C32, G14, G17 Keywords: Price Impact, Limit Order, Impulse Response Function, Cointegration
- The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility (2010)
- We study the impact of the arrival of macroeconomic news on the informational and noise-driven components in high-frequency quote processes and their conditional variances. Bid and ask returns are decomposed into a common ("efficient return") factor and two market-side-specific components capturing market microstructure effects. The corresponding variance components reflect information-driven and noise-induced volatilities. We find that all volatility components reveal distinct dynamics and are positively influenced by news. The proportion of noise-induced variances is highest before announcements and significantly declines thereafter. Moreover, news-affected responses in all volatility components are influenced by order flow imbalances. JEL Classification: C32, G14, E44 Keywords: Efficient Return, Macroeconomic Announcements, Microstructure Noise, Informational Volatility.
- Quantifying high-frequency market reactions to real-time news sentiment announcements (2009)
- We examine intra-day market reactions to news in stock-specific sentiment disclosures. Using pre-processed data from an automated news analytics tool based on linguistic pattern recognition we extract information on the relevance as well as the direction of company-specific news. Information-implied reactions in returns, volatility as well as liquidity demand and supply are quantified by a high-frequency VAR model using 20 second intervals. Analyzing a cross-section of stocks traded at the London Stock Exchange (LSE), we find market-wide robust news-dependent responses in volatility and trading volume. However, this is only true if news items are classified as highly relevant. Liquidity supply reacts less distinctly due to a stronger influence of idiosyncratic noise. Furthermore, evidence for abnormal highfrequency returns after news in sentiments is shown. Keywords. Firm-specific News , News Sentiment , High-frequency Data , Volatility , Liquidity , Abnormal Returns JEL_Classification: G14, C32
- Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision (2008)
- Bayesian learning provides the core concept of processing noisy information. In standard Bayesian frameworks, assessing the price impact of information requires perfect knowledge of news’ precision. In practice, however, precision is rarely dis- closed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian learning, suggesting traders infer news’ precision from magnitudes of surprises and from external sources. We show that interactions of the different precision signals may result in highly nonlinear price responses. Empirical tests based on intra-day T-bond futures price reactions to employment releases confirm the model’s predictions and show that the effects are statistically and economically significant. JEL Classification: E44, G14
- On the dark side of the market: identifying and analyzing hidden order placements (2012)
- Trading under limited pre-trade transparency becomes increasingly popular on financial markets. We provide first evidence on traders’ use of (completely) hidden orders which might be placed even inside of the (displayed) bid-ask spread. Employing TotalView-ITCH data on order messages at NASDAQ, we propose a simple method to conduct statistical inference on the location of hidden depth and to test economic hypotheses. Analyzing a wide cross-section of stocks, we show that market conditions reflected by the (visible) bid-ask spread, (visible) depth, recent price movements and trading signals significantly affect the aggressiveness of ’dark’ liquidity supply and thus the ’hidden spread’. Our evidence suggests that traders balance hidden order placements to (i) compete for the provision of (hidden) liquidity and (ii) protect themselves against adverse selection, front-running as well as ’hidden order detection strategies’ used by high-frequency traders. Accordingly, our results show that hidden liquidity locations are predictable given the observable state of the market.
- Modelling and forecasting liquidity supply using semiparametric factor dynamics (2009)
- We model the dynamics of ask and bid curves in a limit order book market using a dynamic semiparametric factor model. The shape of the curves is captured by a factor structure which is estimated nonparametrically. Corresponding factor loadings are assumed to follow multivariate dynamics and are modelled using a vector autoregressive model. Applying the framework to four stocks traded at the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in 2002, we show that the suggested model captures the spatial and temporal dependencies of the limit order book. Relating the shape of the curves to variables reflecting the current state of the market, we show that the recent liquidity demand has the strongest impact. In an extensive forecasting analysis we show that the model is successful in forecasting the liquidity supply over various time horizons during a trading day. Moreover, it is shown that the model’s forecasting power can be used to improve optimal order execution strategies. JEL-Classifications: C14, C32, C53, G11 Keywords: Limit Order Book, Liquidity Risk, Semiparametric Model, Factor Structure, Prediction
- Financial network systemic risk contributions (2013)
- We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure for financial companies’ contribution to systemic risk given network interdependence between firms’ tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market as well as balance sheet information, we define the realized systemic risk beta as the total time-varying marginal effect of a firm’s Value-at-risk (VaR) on the system’s VaR. Statistical inference reveals a multitude of relevant risk spillover channels and determines companies’ systemic importance in the U.S. financial system. Our approach can be used to monitor companies’ systemic importance allowing for a transparent macroprudential supervision.
- Efficient Iterative Maximum Likelihood Estimation of High-Parameterized Time Series Models (2014)
- We propose an iterative procedure to efficiently estimate models with complex log-likelihood functions and the number of parameters relative to the observations being potentially high. Given consistent but inefficient estimates of sub-vectors of the parameter vector, the procedure yields computationally tractable, consistent and asymptotic efficient estimates of all parameters. We show the asymptotic normality and derive the estimator's asymptotic covariance in dependence of the number of iteration steps. To mitigate the curse of dimensionality in high-parameterized models, we combine the procedure with a penalization approach yielding sparsity and reducing model complexity. Small sample properties of the estimator are illustrated for two time series models in a simulation study. In an empirical application, we use the proposed method to estimate the connectedness between companies by extending the approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) to a high-dimensional non-Gaussian setting.
- Copula-based dynamic conditional correlation multiplicative error processes (2013)
- We introduce a copula-based dynamic model for multivariate processes of (non-negative) high-frequency trading variables revealing time-varying conditional variances and correlations. Modeling the variables’ conditional mean processes using a multiplicative error model we map the resulting residuals into a Gaussian domain using a Gaussian copula. Based on high-frequency volatility, cumulative trading volumes, trade counts and market depth of various stocks traded at the NYSE, we show that the proposed copula-based transformation is supported by the data and allows capturing (multivariate) dynamics in higher order moments. The latter are modeled using a DCC-GARCH specification. We suggest estimating the model by composite maximum likelihood which is sufficiently flexible to be applicable in high dimensions. Strong empirical evidence for time-varying conditional (co-)variances in trading processes supports the usefulness of the approach. Taking these higher-order dynamics explicitly into account significantly improves the goodness-of-fit of the multiplicative error model and allows capturing time-varying liquidity risks.