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Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions
(2012)
- Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over >106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes.
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Cognitive behavioural therapy versus supportive therapy for persistent positive symptoms in psychotic disorders: the POSITIVE Study, a multicenter, prospective, single-blind, randomised controlled clinical trial
(2010)
- Background: It has been demonstrated that cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) has a moderate effect on symptom reduction and on general well being of patients suffering from psychosis. However, questions regarding the specific efficacy of CBT, the treatment safety, the cost-effectiveness, and the moderators and mediators of treatment effects are still a major issue. The major objective of this trial is to investigate whether CBT is specifically efficacious in reducing positive symptoms when compared with non-specific supportive therapy (ST) which does not implement CBT-techniques but provides comparable therapeutic attention. Methods: The POSITIVE study is a multicenter, prospective, single-blind, parallel group, randomised clinical trial, comparing CBT and ST with respect to the efficacy in reducing positive symptoms in psychotic disorders. CBT as well as ST consist of 20 sessions altogether, 165 participants receiving CBT and 165 participants receiving ST. Major methodological aspects of the study are systematic recruitment, explicit inclusion criteria, reliability checks of assessments with control for rater shift, analysis by intention to treat, data management using remote data entry, measures of quality assurance (e.g. on-site monitoring with source data verification, regular query process), advanced statistical analysis, manualized treatment, checks of adherence and competence of therapists. Research relating the psychotherapy process with outcome, neurobiological research addressing basic questions of delusion formation using fMRI and neuropsychological assessment and treatment research investigating adaptations of CBT for adolescents is combined in this network. Problems of transfer into routine clinical care will be identified and addressed by a project focusing on cost efficiency. Discussion: This clinical trial is part of efforts to intensify psychotherapy research in the field of psychosis in Germany, to contribute to the international discussion on psychotherapy in psychotic disorders, and to help implement psychotherapy in routine care. Furthermore, the study will allow drawing conclusions about the mediators of treatment effects of CBT of psychotic disorders. Trial Registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN29242879
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On the structural changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation after 2000
(2010)
- In this paper we present evidence that the observed increase in tropical upwelling after the year 2000 may be attributed to a change in the Brewer-Dobson circulation pattern. For this purpose, we use the concept of transit times derived from residual circulation trajectories and different in-situ measurements of ozone and nitrous dioxide. Observations from the Canadian midlatitude ozone profile record, probability density functions of in-situ N2O observations and a shift of the N2O-O3 correlation slopes, taken together, indicate that the increased upwelling in the tropics after the year 2000 appears to have triggered an intensification of tracer transport from the tropics into the extratropics in the lower stratosphere below about 500 K. This finding is corroborated by the fact that transit times along the shallow branch of the residual circulation into the LMS have decreased for the same time period (1993–2003). On a longer time scale (1979–2009), the transit time of the shallow residual circulation branch show a steady decrease of about −1 month/decade over the last 30 years, while the transit times of the deep branch remain unchanged. This highlights the fact that a change in the upwelling across the tropical tropopause is not a direct indicator for changes of the whole Brewer-Dobson circulation.
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On the structural changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation after 2000
(2011)
- In this paper we present evidence that the observed increase in tropical upwelling after the year 2000 may be attributed to a change in the Brewer-Dobson circulation pattern. For this purpose, we use the concept of transit times derived from residual circulation trajectories and different in-situ measurements of ozone and nitrous dioxide. Observations from the Canadian midlatitude ozone profile record, probability density functions of in-situ N2O observations and a shift of the N2O-O3 correlation slopes, taken together, indicate that the increased upwelling in the tropics after the year 2000 appears to have triggered an intensification of tracer transport from the tropics into the extratropics in the lower stratosphere below about 500 K. This finding is corroborated by the fact that transit times along the shallow branch of the residual circulation into the LMS have decreased for the same time period (1993–2003). On a longer time scale (1979–2009), the transit time of the shallow residual circulation branch show a steady decrease of about −1 month/decade over the last 30 yr, while the transit times of the deep branch remain unchanged. This highlights that changes in the upwelling across the tropical tropopause are not sufficient as an indicator for changes in the entire Brewer-Dobson circulation.
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A new estimation of the recent tropospheric molecular hydrogen budget using atmospheric observations and variational inversion
(2010)
- This paper presents an analysis of the recent tropospheric molecular hydrogen (H2) budget with a particular focus on soil uptake and surface emissions. A variational inversion scheme is combined with observations from the RAMCES and EUROHYDROS atmospheric networks, which include continuous measurements performed between mid-2006 and mid-2009. Net H2 surface flux, soil uptake distinct from surface emissions and finally, soil uptake, biomass burning, anthropogenic emissions and N2 fixation-related emissions separately were inverted in several scenarios. The various inversions generate an estimate for each term of the H2 budget. The net H2 flux per region (High Northern Hemisphere, Tropics and High Southern Hemisphere) varies between −8 and 8 Tg yr−1. The best inversion in terms of fit to the observations combines updated prior surface emissions and a soil deposition velocity map that is based on soil uptake measurements. Our estimate of global H2 soil uptake is −59 ± 4.0 Tg yr−1. Forty per cent of this uptake is located in the High Northern Hemisphere and 55% is located in the Tropics. In terms of surface emissions, seasonality is mainly driven by biomass burning emissions. The inferred European anthropogenic emissions are consistent with independent H2 emissions estimated using a H2/CO mass ratio of 0.034 and CO emissions considering their respective uncertainties. To constrain a more robust partition of H2 sources and sinks would need additional constraints, such as isotopic measurements.
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A new estimation of the recent tropospheric molecular hydrogen budget using atmospheric observations and variational inversion
(2011)
- This paper presents an analysis of the recent tropospheric molecular hydrogen (H2) budget with a particular focus on soil uptake and European surface emissions. A variational inversion scheme is combined with observations from the RAMCES and EUROHYDROS atmospheric networks, which include continuous measurements performed between mid-2006 and mid-2009. Net H2 surface flux, then deposition velocity and surface emissions and finally, deposition velocity, biomass burning, anthropogenic and N2 fixation-related emissions were simultaneously inverted in several scenarios. These scenarios have focused on the sensibility of the soil uptake value to different spatio-temporal distributions. The range of variations of these diverse inversion sets generate an estimate of the uncertainty for each term of the H2 budget. The net H2 flux per region (High Northern Hemisphere, Tropics and High Southern Hemisphere) varies between −8 and +8 Tg yr−1. The best inversion in terms of fit to the observations combines updated prior surface emissions and a soil deposition velocity map that is based on bottom-up and top-down estimations. Our estimate of global H2 soil uptake is −59±9 Tg yr−1. Forty per cent of this uptake is located in the High Northern Hemisphere and 55% is located in the Tropics. In terms of surface emissions, seasonality is mainly driven by biomass burning emissions. The inferred European anthropogenic emissions are consistent with independent H2 emissions estimated using a H2/CO mass ratio of 0.034 and CO emissions within the range of their respective uncertainties. Additional constraints, such as isotopic measurements would be needed to infer a more robust partition of H2 sources and sinks.
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The isotopic composition of methane in the stratosphere: high-altitude balloon sample measurements
(2011)
- The isotopic composition of stratospheric methane has been determined on a large suite of air samples from stratospheric balloon flights covering subtropical to polar latitudes and a time period of 16 yr. 154 samples were analyzed for δC and 119 samples for δD, increasing the previously published dataset for balloon borne samples by an order of magnitude, and more than doubling the total available stratospheric data (including aircraft samples) published to date. The samples also cover a large range in mixing ratio from tropospheric values near 1800 ppb down to only 250 ppb, and the strong isotope fractionation processes accordingly increase the isotopic composition up to δ13C=−14‰ and δD= +190‰, the largest enrichments observed for atmospheric CH4 so far. When analyzing and comparing kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) derived from single balloon profiles, it is necessary to take into account the residence time in the stratosphere in combination with the observed mixing ratio and isotope trends in the troposphere, and the range of isotope values covered by the individual profile. Temporal isotope trends can also be determined in the stratosphere and compare reasonably well with the tropospheric trends. The effects of chemical and dynamical processes on the isotopic composition of CH4 in the stratosphere are discussed in detail. Different ways to interpret the data in terms of the relative fractions of the three important sink mechanisms (reaction with OH, O(1D)) and Cl, respectively), and their limitations, are investigated. The classical approach of using global mean KIE values can be strongly biased when profiles with different minimum mixing ratios are compared. Approaches for more local KIE investigations are suggested. It is shown that any approach for a formal sink partitioning from the measured data severely underestimates the fraction removed by OH, which is likely due to the insensitivity of the measurements to the kinetic fractionation in the lower stratosphere. Attempts can be made to correct for the lower stratospheric sink bias, but full quantitative interpretation of the CH4 isotope data in terms of the three sink reactions requires a global model.
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The isotopic composition of methane in the stratosphere: high-altitude balloon sample measurements
(2011)
- The isotopic composition of stratospheric methane has been determined on a large suite of air samples from stratospheric balloon flights covering subtropical to polar latitudes and a time period of 16 yr. 154 samples were analyzed for δ13C and 119 samples for δD, increasing the previously published dataset for balloon borne samples by an order of magnitude, and more than doubling the total available stratospheric data (including aircraft samples) published to date. The samples also cover a large range in mixing ratio from tropospheric values near 1800 ppb down to only 250 ppb, and the strong isotope fractionation processes accordingly increase the isotopic composition up to δ13C = −14‰ and δD = +190‰, the largest enrichments observed for atmospheric CH4 so far. When analyzing and comparing kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) derived from single balloon profiles, it is necessary to take into account the residence time in the stratosphere in combination with the observed mixing ratio and isotope trends in the troposphere, and the range of isotope values covered by the individual profile. The isotopic composition of CH4 in the stratosphere is affected by both chemical and dynamical processes. This severely hampers interpretation of the data in terms of the relative fractions of the three important sink mechanisms (reaction with OH, O(1D) and Cl). It is shown that a formal sink partitioning using the measured data severely underestimates the fraction removed by OH, which is likely due to the insensitivity of the measurements to the kinetic fractionation in the lower stratosphere. Full quantitative interpretation of the CH4 isotope data in terms of the three sink reactions requires a global model.
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Probing stratospheric transport and chemistry with new balloon and aircraft observations of the meridional and vertical N2O isotope distribution
(2006)
- A comprehensive set of stratospheric balloon and aircraft samples was analyzed for the position-dependent isotopic composition of nitrous oxide (N2O). Results for a total of 220 samples from between 1987 and 2003 are presented, nearly tripling the number of mass-spectrometric N2O isotope measurements in the stratosphere published to date. Cryogenic balloon samples were obtained at polar (Kiruna/Sweden, 68° N), mid-latitude (southern France, 44° N) and tropical sites (Hyderabad/India, 18° N). Aircraft samples were collected with a newly-developed whole air sampler on board of the high-altitude aircraft M55 Geophysica during the EUPLEX 2003 campaign. All samples were analyzed by laboratory mass spectrometry for their 18O/16O and position-dependent 15N/14N isotope ratios with very high precision (standard deviation about 0.15 per mil for 18O/16O and average 15N/14N ratios, about 0.5 per mil for 15NNO/14NNO and N15NO/N14NO ratios). For mixing ratios above 200 nmol mol−1, relative isotope enrichments (δ values) and mixing ratios display a compact relationship, which is nearly independent of latitude and season and which can be explained equally well by Rayleigh fractionation or mixing. However, for mixing ratios below 200 nmol mol−1 this compact relationship gives way to meridional, seasonal and interannual variations. A comparison to a previously published mid-latitude balloon profile even shows large zonal variations, justifying the use of three-dimensional models for further data interpretation. In general, the magnitude of the apparent fractionation constants (apparent isotope effects) increases continuously with altitude and decreases from the equator to the North pole, which can be qualitatively understood by the interplay between the time-scales of N2O photochemistry and transport. Deviations from this behavior occur where polar vortex air mixes with nearly N2O-free upper stratospheric/mesospheric air (e.g., during the boreal winter of 2003 and possibly 1992). Aircraft observations in the polar vortex at mixing ratios below 200 nmol mol−1 deviate from isotope variations expected for both Rayleigh fractionation and end-member mixing, but could be explained by continuous weak mixing between intravortex and extravortex air (Plumb et al., 2000). Finally, correlations between 18O/16O and average 15N/14N isotope ratios or between the position-dependent 15N/14N isotope ratios show that photo-oxidation makes a large contribution to the total N2O sink in the lower stratosphere (up to 100%). Towards higher altitudes, the temperature dependence of these isotope correlations becomes visible in the stratospheric observations.
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Short-lived brominated species - observations in the source regions and the tropical tropopause layer
(2011)
- We conducted measurements of up to the five important short-lived brominated species in the marine boundary layer (MBL) of the mid-latitudes (List/Sylt, North Sea) in June 2009 and of the tropical Western Pacific during the TransBrom ship campaign in October 2009. For the one-week time series in List mean mixing ratios of 2.0, 1.1, 0.2, 0.1 ppt were analysed for CHBr3, CH2Br2, CHBr2Cl and CH2BrCl, with maxima of 5.8 and 1.6 ppt for the two main components CHBr3 and CH2Br2. Along the cruise track in the Western Pacific (between 41° N and 13° S) mean mixing ratios of 1.0, 0.9, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.1 ppt for CHBr3, CH2Br2, CHBrCl2, CHBr2Cl and CH2BrCl were determined. Air samples with coastal influence showed considerably higher mixing ratios than the samples with open ocean origin. Correlation analyses of the two datasets yielded strong linear relationships between the mixing ratios of four of the five species (except for CH2BrCl). Using a combined dataset from the two campaigns, rough estimates of the molar emission ratios between the correlated substances were derived as follows: 9/1/0.3/0.3 for CHBr3/CH2Br2/CHBrCl2/CHBr2Cl. Additional measurements were made in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) above Teresina (Brazil, 5.07° S, 42.87° W) in June 2008, using balloon-borne cryogenic whole air sampling technique. Near the level of zero clear-sky net radiative heating (LZRH) at 14.8 km about 2.25 ppt organic bromine was bound to the five short-lived species, making up 13 % of total organic bromine (17.82 ppt). CH2Br2 (1.45 ppt) and CHBr3 (0.56 ppt) accounted for 90 % of the budget of short-lived compounds in that region. Near the tropopause (at 17.5 km) organic bromine from short-lived substances was reduced to 1.35 ppt, with 1.07 ppt and 0.12 ppt attributed to CH2Br2 and CHBr3 respectively.
