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Years of endemic infections with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A subtype H5N1 virus in poultry and high numbers of infections in humans provide ample opportunity in Egypt for H5N1-HPAIV to develop pandemic potential. In an effort to better understand the viral determinants that facilitate human infections of the Egyptian H5N1-HPAIVvirus, we developed a new phylogenetic algorithm based on a new distance measure derived from the informational spectrum method (ISM). This new approach, which describes functional aspects of the evolution of the hemagglutinin subunit 1 (HA1), revealed a growing group G2 of H5N1-HPAIV in Egypt after 2009 that acquired new informational spectrum (IS) properties suggestive of an increased human tropism and pandemic potential. While in 2006 all viruses in Egypt belonged to the G1 group, by 2011 these viruses were virtually replaced by G2 viruses. All of the G2 viruses displayed four characteristic mutations (D43N, S120(D,N), (S,L)129Δ and I151T), three of which were previously reported to increase binding to the human receptor. Already in 2006–2008 G2 viruses were significantly (p<0.02) more often found in humans than expected from their overall prevalence and this further increased in 2009–2011 (p<0.007). Our approach also identified viruses that acquired additional mutations that we predict to further enhance their human tropism. The extensive evolution of Egyptian H5N1-HPAIV towards a preferential human tropism underlines an urgent need to closely monitor these viruses with respect to molecular determinants of virulence.
Newly emerging influenza A viruses (IAV) pose a major threat to human health by causing seasonal epidemics and/or pandemics, the latter often facilitated by the lack of pre-existing immunity in the general population. Early recognition of candidate pandemic influenza viruses (CPIV) is of crucial importance for restricting virus transmission and developing appropriate therapeutic and prophylactic strategies including effective vaccines. Often, the pandemic potential of newly emerging IAV is only fully recognized once the virus starts to spread efficiently causing serious disease in humans. Here, we used a novel phylogenetic algorithm based on the informational spectrum method (ISM) to identify potential CPIV by predicting mutations in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) gene that are likely to (differentially) affect critical interactions between the HA protein and target cells from bird and human origin, respectively. Predictions were subsequently validated by generating pseudotyped retrovirus particles and genetically engineered IAV containing these mutations and characterizing potential effects on virus entry and replication in cells expressing human and avian IAV receptors, respectively. Our data suggest that the ISM-based algorithm is suitable to identify CPIV among IAV strains that are circulating in animal hosts and thus may be a new tool for assessing pandemic risks associated with specific strains.