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The main objective of this PhD work is to assess the impact of fine-scale air-sea interaction on the performance of a regional climate prediction model in marginal sea regions. Focus is on the North and Baltic Seas, the largest marginal sea area in the mid-latitudes. Motivation for this work is to better understand the interaction between the different components of the climate system, namely atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice. In addition to that, the sea regions of interest, the North and Baltic Seas, are orographically complex and cannot be resolved by a global ocean model. The ice coverage on the Baltic Sea is underestimated in the stand-alone atmospheric model COSMO-CLM due to the low water freezing temperature value assumed, which is not applicable for such brackish water body. To fulfil the thesis goal, a new regional coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system was developed for these two seas, named COSMO-CLM/NEMO. The two-way coupling system involves active feedback from both component models: the limited-area climate model COSMO-CLM and the regional ocean model NEMO-NORDIC.
The coupled system COSMO-CLM/NEMO for the North and Baltic Seas was used to study the impact of sea surface temperature and sea ice on the atmosphere on diffrent topics. The long term impact of the North and Baltic Seas was studied through 15- year long simulations driven by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. Furthermore, to see whether the marginal sea modelling can advance the simulation of extreme climate events, the coupled model was used to reproduce six extreme snowband phenomena over the Baltic Sea in simulations driven by ERA-interim data. Last but not least, the role of the North and Baltic Sea model in improving long-term regional climate prediction was examined. Two sets of experiments with coupled and uncoupled models, each set has five independent decadal hindcasts forced by global climate model, were carried out.
All results were compared with observations and the stand-alone atmospheric model COSMO-CLM results. In all experiments, COSMO-CLM/NEMO showed good agreement with observations. Improvements compared with the uncoupled COSMO-CLM were also found. Coupling was found to affect the air temperature not only around the coupled sea region but also inland. The convective snowbands over the Baltic Sea were successfully reproduced by the coupled model. The high contrast of temperature in the air column, as well as considerably high amounts of surface heat fluxes exchanged between air and sea could not be simulated by COSMO-CLM without the help of reanalysis data. The coupled model also provided better forecasts in decadal scales compared with the uncoupled model and the global model. The added predictability came from the initialized regional seas and better simulated sea surface temperatures by the ocean model.
The impact of the North and Baltic Seas on the climate of the surrounding regions is in certain phases dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) activity. In this thesis, the relation between the NAO and the marginal sea influences was studied. It is confirmed by this study that, in strong phases, the NAO can overpower the impact of the local seas. During dominant phases of NAO, the European climate is mainly governed by large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the local seas play an important role in determining the European climate when NAO is in weak phases.
The added value of the coupled model raises promising perspectives for research in this field. It points to a potential benefit of using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice system for climate prediction in the region surrounding the North and Baltic Seas. Along with that, it is still a challenge to complete the model representation of the climate system by adding more climate components (such as a hydrological model). Further improvement of the coupled system can be achieved by coupling for a larger sea region, or by trying to reduce remaining low performance of the coupled model in some areas with a better configuration of the current system.