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This paper employs stochastic simulations of the New Area-Wide Model—a microfounded open-economy model developed at the ECB—to investigate the consequences of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the evolution of risks to price stability in the euro area during the recent financial crisis. Using a formal measure of the balance of risks, which is derived from policy-makers’ preferences about inflation outcomes, we first show that downside risks to price stability were considerably greater than upside risks during the first half of 2009, followed by a gradual rebalancing of these risks until mid-2011 and a renewed deterioration thereafter. We find that the lower bound has induced a noticeable downward bias in the risk balance throughout our evaluation period because of the implied amplification of deflation risks. We then illustrate that, with nominal interest rates close to zero, forward guidance in the form of a time-based conditional commitment to keep interest rates low for longer can be successful in mitigating downside risks to price stability. However, we find that the provision of time-based forward guidance may give rise to upside risks over the medium term if extended too far into the future. By contrast, time-based forward guidance complemented with a threshold condition concerning tolerable future inflation can provide insurance against the materialisation of such upside risks.
Empirical evidence suggests that asset returns correlate more strongly in bear markets than conventional correlation estimates imply. We propose a method for determining complete tail correlation matrices based on Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates. We demonstrate how to obtain more efficient tail-correlation estimates by use of overidentification strategies and how to guarantee positive semidefiniteness, a property required for valid risk aggregation and Markowitz{type portfolio optimization. An empirical application to a 30-asset universe illustrates the practical applicability and relevance of the approach in portfolio management.
Das im Jahr 2013 begonnene und für einen Zeitraum von 18 Jahren konzipierte Forschungsvorhaben zielt auf die Erstellung eines historisch-semantischen Wörterbuchs zum Denken der Schule von Salamanca und ihrer Bedeutung für politische Theorie und Recht in der Moderne. Als Grundlage dieses Wörterbuchs wird ein digitales Corpus von zentralen Texten der Schule von Salamanca aufgebaut, das mit der elektronischen Version des Wörterbuchs verknüpft ist und der internationalen und interdisziplinären Forschergemeinschaft direkten Zugriff auf die einschlägigen Quellentexte ermöglicht. Durch die Volltexterschließung der digitalen Quellen wird zugleich ein in seiner Funktionalität neuartiges elektronisches Arbeitsinstrument geschaffen, das einen wichtigen Fortschritt gegenüber allen bisherigen Digitalisierungsprojekten in diesem Bereich darstellt. Dieses Arbeitsinstrument wird auch über seine Funktionalität für das zu erstellende Wörterbuch hinaus qualitativ neue Forschungsmöglichkeiten eröffnen.
Beides – Wörterbuch und Quellencorpus – werden in einem repository erfasst und über eine Webseite als Forschungsinstrument der internationalen scientific community zur Verfügung gestellt. Das Wörterbuch wird zum Schluss der letzten Arbeitsphase zusätzlich in Buchform publiziert. Die weltweite Forschung zur Schule von Salamanca und zu ihrer Wirkungsgeschichte wird damit zum ersten Mal Zugriff auf ein gemeinsames Textcorpus haben und über einen intellektuellen Referenzrahmen für dessen historische Unter-suchung und interdisziplinäre Diskussion verfügen.
Dieser Beitrag soll Ausgangslage und Zielsetzung des Vorhabens zusammenfassen (1.), das geplante Quellencorpus (2.), das Wörterbuch (3.) und den Arbeitsplan (4.) vorstellen.
This study presents an empirical analysis of capital and liability management in eight cases of bank restructurings and resolutions from eight different European countries. It can be read as a companion piece to an earlier study by the author covering the specific bank restructuring programs of Greece, Spain and Cyprus during 2012/13.
The study portrays for each case the timelines between the initial credit event and the (last) restructuring. It proceeds to discuss the capital and liability management activity before restructuring and the restructuring itself, launches an attempt to calibrate the extent of creditor participation as well as expected loss by government, and engages in a counterfactual discussion of what could have been a least cost restructuring approach.
Four of the eight cases are resolutions, i.e. the original bank is unwound (Anglo Irish Bank, Amagerbanken, Dexia, Laiki), while the four other banks have de-facto or de-jure become nationalized and are awaiting re-privatization after the restructuring (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank/Hypo Real Estate, Bankia, SNS Reaal, Alpha Bank). The case selection follows considerations of their model character for the European bank restructuring and resolution policy discussion while straddling both the U.S. (2007 - 2010) and the European (2010 - ) legs of the financial crisis, which each saw very different policy responses....
We provide an assessment of the determinants of the risk remia paid by non-financial corporations on long-term bonds. By looking at 5,500 issues over the period 2005-2012, we find that in recent years the sovereign debt market turbulence has been a major driver of corporate risk. Compared with the three-year period 2005-07 before the global financial crisis, in the years 2010-12 Italian, Spanish and Portuguese firms paid on average between 70 and 120 basis points of additional premium due to the negative spillovers from the sovereign debt crisis, while German firms got a discount of 40 basis points.
Advances in technology and several regulatory initiatives have led to the emergence of a competitive but fragmented equity trading landscape in the US and Europe. While these changes have brought about several benefits like reduced transaction costs, regulators and market participants have also raised concerns about the potential adverse effects associated with increased execution complexity and the impact on market quality of new types of venues like dark pools. In this article we review the theoretical and empirical literature examining the economic arguments and motivations underlying market fragmentation, as well as the resulting implications for investors' welfare. We start with the literature that views exchanges as natural monopolies due to presence of network externalities, and then examine studies which challenge this view by focusing on trader heterogeneity and other aspects of the microstructure of equity markets.
This paper examines a practice that is nearly imperceptible to historians because the bulk of evidence for it is to be found in the interstices of the beaten paths of legal and social history and because it mixes economic and religious matters in a strikingly unfamiliar manner. From the thirteenth to the sixteenth century, excommunication for debt offered ordinary people an economical, efficacious enforcement mechanism for small-scale, daily, unwritten credit. At the same time, the practice offered holders of ecclesiastical jurisdiction an important opportunity to round out their incomes, particularly in the difficult fifteenth century. This transitional practice reveals a level of credit below that of the letters of change, annuities secured on real property, or written obligations beloved of economic historians and historians of banking. Studying the practice casts light on the transition from the face-to-face, local economies of the high Middle Ages to the regional economies of the early modern period, on how the Reformation shaped early modern regimes of credit, and on how the disappearance of ecclesiastical civil justice facilitated the emergence of early modern juridically sovereign territories.
We present a thought-provoking study of two monetary models: the cash-in-advance and the Lagos and Wright (2005) models. We report that the different approach to modeling money — reduced-form vs. explicit role — neither induces theoretical nor quantitative differences in results. Given conformity of preferences, technologies and shocks, both models reduce to one difference equation. The equations do not coincide only if price distortions are differentially imposed across models. To illustrate, when cash prices are equally distorted in both models equally large welfare costs of inflation are obtained in each model. Our insight is that if results differ, then this is due to differential assumptions about the pricing mechanism that governs cash transactions, not the explicit microfoundation of money.
This paper summarizes the key proposals of the report by the Liikanen Commission. It starts with an explanation of a crisis narrative underlying the Report and its proposals. The proposals aim for a revitalization of market discipline in financial markets. The two main structural proposals of the Liikanen Report are: first, for large banks, the separation of the trading business from other parts of the banking business (the "Separation Proposal"), and the mandatory issuing of subordinated bank debt thought to be liable (the strict "Bail-in Proposal"). The credibility of this commitment to private liability is achieved by strict holding restrictions. The anticipated consequences of the introduction of these structural regulations for the financial industry and markets are addressed in a concluding part.
Ausgehend von einer Erläuterung der Kriseninterpretation (crisis narrative), wie sie in dem Bericht der Liikanen-Kommission zugrunde liegt, werden die nach Ansicht des Verfassers zentralen Vorschläge des Kommissionsberichts ausgewählt, vorgestellt und in den größeren Rahmen einer erneuerten Ordnungspolitik für die Finanzmärkte Europas eingeordnet. Die mit den Vorschlägen eng zusammenhängenden Reformelemente der Bankenunion werden in diesem Text bewusst ausgeklammert. Die beiden zentralen Strukturvorschläge des Liikanen-Berichts betreffen die Abspaltung der Handelsgeschäfte von dem Universalbankengeschäft für große, internationale Banken (der Trennbankenvorschlag), sowie die verpflichtende Emission nachrangigen, glaubwürdig haftenden Fremdkapitals (der strenge Bail-in Vorschlag). Glaubwürdigkeit der Haftungszusage wird durch strenge Halterestriktionen erreicht. Vorhersehbare Folgerungen einer Einführung dieser Strukturregeln für die Finanzindustrie und -märkte werden in einem abschließenden Teil angesprochen.