Working Paper Series : Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability
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- Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (68)
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- 68
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Fiscal consolidation strategy: an update for the budget reform proposal of march 2013
(2013)
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John F. Cogan
John B. Taylor
Volker Wieland
Maik Hendrik Wolters
- Recently, we evaluated a fiscal consolidation strategy for the United States that would bring the government budget into balance by gradually reducing government spending relative to GDP to the ratio that prevailed prior to the crisis (Cogan et al, JEDC 2013). Specifically, we published an analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of the 2013 Budget Resolution that was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in March 2012. In this note, we provide an update of our research that evaluates this year’s budget reform proposal that is to be discussed and voted on in the House of Representative in March 2013. Contrary to the views voiced by critics of fiscal consolidation, we show that such a reduction in government purchases and transfer payments can increase GDP immediately and permanently relative to a policy without spending restraint. Our research makes use of a modern structural model of the economy that incorporates the long-standing essential features of economics: opportunity costs, efficiency, foresight and incentives. GDP rises because households take into account that spending restraint helps avoid future increases in tax rates. Lower taxes imply less distorted incentives for work, investment and production relative to a scenario without fiscal consolidation and lead to higher growth.
- 67
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Monetary theory and monetary policy: reflections on the development over the last 150 years
(2012)
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Otmar Issing
Volker Wieland
- In this paper, we provide some reflections on the development of monetary theory and monetary policy over the last 150 years. Rather than presenting an encompassing overview, which would be overambitious, we simply concentrate on a few selected aspects that we view as milestones in the development of this subject. We also try to illustrate some of the interactions with the political and financial system, academic discussion and the views and actions of central banks.
- 66
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Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: results from a new model database
(2012)
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John B. Taylor
Volker Wieland
- In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy using a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models due to Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005), Smets and Wouters (2007) and Taylor (1993a). Although these models differ in terms of structure, estimation method, sample period, and data vintage, we find surprisingly similar economic impacts of unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate. However, optimized monetary policy rules differ across models and lack robustness. Model averaging offers an effective strategy for improving the robustness of policy rules.
- 65
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Missachtung rechtlicher Vorgaben des AEUV durch die Mitgliedstaaten und die EZB in der Schuldenkrise
(2012)
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Helmut Siekmann
- Zusammenfassung und Ergebnisse
1. Es gibt gute Argumente für ein generelles Verbot (freiwilliger) Unterstützungsleistungen an Euro-Mitgliedstaaten.
2. Die Vereinbarkeit der Leistungen der EU im Rahmen des EFSM mit Art. 122 Abs. 2 AEUV ist fraglich. Die Beurteilung der Kausalitätsfrage ist maßgebend.
3. Die Vereinbarkeit der Leistungen der Mitgliedstaaten im Rahmen der speziellen Griechenlandhilfe und im Rahmen der EFSF mit dem AEUV in der damals geltenden Fassung ist nicht sicher.
4. Die Einführung von Art. 136 Abs. 3 AEUV modifiziert das Vertragsrecht und ist wohl noch in Einklang mit Art. 48 Abs. 6 EUV erfolgt.
5. ESM und Fiskalpakt verstoßen nach der Änderung des Primärrechts wohl nicht gegen den AEUV.
6. Unabdingbar für die Schaffung des ESM sind aber das Inkrafttreten von Art. 136 Abs. 3 AEUV und
7. Der Erwerb von Forderungen gegen Mitgliedstaaten über einen längeren Zeitraum und zur Erleichterung von Zinslasten überschreitet die Befugnisse und Zuständigkeiten des ESZB.
8. Der Erwerb von Forderungen gegen Mitgliedstaaten über einen längeren Zeitraum und zur Erleichterung von Zinslasten ist nicht mit dem Verbot der Kreditgewährung durch Zentralbanken an Hoheitsträger nach Art. 123 AEUV zu vereinbaren
9. Die Gewährung von langfristigen Krediten an Banken verstößt ebenfalls gegen die Zuständigkeitsordnung des AEUV und ist bei einer Weiterleitung der Mittel an Hoheitsträger nicht mit Art. 123 AEUV zu vereinbaren.
10. Die Akzeptierung von ausfallgefährdeten Forderungen als Sicherheit für die Gewährung von Krediten durch das ESZB verstößt gegen Art. 18.1., zweiter Spiegelstrich, Satzung ESZB/EZB.
- 64
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Die Legende von der verfassungsrechtlichen Sonderstellung des "anonymen" Kapitaleigentums
(2012)
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Helmut Siekmann
- 63
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On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price setting
(2012)
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Guenter W. Beck
Kirstin Hubrich
Massimiliano Marcellino
- We use a novel disaggregate sectoral euro area data set with a regional breakdown to investigate price changes and suggest a new method to extract factors from over-lapping data blocks. This allows us to separately estimate aggregate, sectoral, country-specific and regional components of price changes. We thereby provide an improved estimate of the sectoral factor in comparison with previous literature, which decomposes price changes into an aggregate and idiosyncratic component only, and interprets the latter as sectoral. We find that the sectoral component explains much less of the variation in sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than previous findings for the US indicate. We further contribute to the literature on price setting by providing evidence that country- and region-specific factors play an important role in addition to the sector-specific factors, emphasising heterogeneity of inflation dynamics along different dimensions. We also conclude that sectoral price changes have a “geographical” dimension, that leads to new insights regarding the properties of sectoral price changes.
- 62
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Forecasting and policy making
(2012)
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Volker Wieland
Maik Hendrik Wolters
- 61
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Fiscal consolidation strategy
(2012)
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John F. Cogan
John B. Taylor
Volker Wieland
Maik Hendrik Wolters
- In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face
substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a
ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent
after the crisis. In this paper we consider a fiscal consolidation strategy that brings the budget
to balance by gradually reducing this spending ratio over time to the level that prevailed prior
to the crisis. A crucial issue is the impact of such a consolidation strategy on the economy.
We use structural macroeconomic models to estimate this impact focussing primarily on a
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with price and wage rigidities and adjustment
costs. We separate out the impact of reductions in government purchases and transfers, and
we allow for a reduction in both distortionary taxes and government debt relative to the
baseline of no consolidation. According to the model simulations GDP rises in the short run
upon announcement and implementation of this fiscal consolidation strategy and remains
higher than the baseline in the long run. We explore the role of the mix of expenditure cuts
and tax reductions as well as gradualism in achieving this policy outcome. Finally, we
conduct sensitivity studies regarding the type of model used and its parameterization.
- 60
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The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach
(2012)
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Peter Tillmann
Maik Hendrik Wolters
- We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persis tence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. Economic theory, however, provides various reasons -for example downward wage rigidities or menu costs- to expect higher inflation persistence at the upper than at the lower tail of the conditional inflation distribution.
Based on post-war US data we indeed find slower mean reversion in response to positive than to negative shocks. We find robust evidence for a structural break in persistence at all quantiles of the inflation process in the early 1980s. Inflation persistence has decreased and become more homogeneous across quantiles. Persistence at the conditional mean became more informative about the degree of persistence across the entire conditional inflation distribution. While prior to the 1980s inflation was not mean reverting in response to large positive shocks, our evidence strongly suggests that since the end of the Volcker disinflation the unit root can be rejected at every quantile including the upper tail of the conditional inflation distribution.
- 59
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Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models
(2012)
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Maik Hendrik Wolters
- This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Point forecasts of some models are of similar accuracy as the forecasts of nonstructural large dataset methods. Despite their common underlying New Keynesian modeling philosophy, forecasts of different DSGE models turn out to be quite distinct. Weighted forecasts are more precise than forecasts from individual models. The accuracy of a simple average of DSGE model forecasts is comparable to Greenbook projections for medium term horizons. Comparing density forecasts of DSGE models with the actual distribution of observations shows that the models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts.
