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This paper studies constrained portfolio problems that may involve constraints on the probability or the expected size of a shortfall of wealth or consumption. Our first contribution is that we solve the problems by dynamic programming, which is in contrast to the existing literature that applies the martingale method. More precisely, we construct the non-separable value function by formalizing the optimal constrained terminal wealth to be a (conjectured) contingent claim on the optimal non-constrained terminal wealth. This is relevant by itself, but also opens up the opportunity to derive new solutions to constrained problems. As a second contribution, we thus derive new results for non-strict constraints on the shortfall of inter¬mediate wealth and/or consumption.
The complexity resulting from intertwined uncertainties regarding model misspecification and mismeasurement of the state of the economy defines the monetary policy landscape. Using the euro area as laboratory this paper explores the design of robust policy guides aiming to maintain stability in the economy while recognizing this complexity. We document substantial output gap mismeasurement and make use of a new model data base to capture the evolution of model specification. A simple interest rate rule is employed to interpret ECB policy since 1999. An evaluation of alternative policy rules across 11 models of the euro area confirms the fragility of policy analysis optimized for any specific model and shows the merits of model averaging in policy design. Interestingly, a simple difference rule with the same coefficients on inflation and output growth as the one used to interpret ECB policy is quite robust as long as it responds to current outcomes of these variables.
The 'de-allative'-pattern (Heine/ Kuteva 2008: 103) gives rise to the French grammaticalized periphrasis aller + INF and the Spanish grammaticalized periphrasis ir a + INF. This construction (anar + INF) also consists in Catalan, but here, however, with the periphrasis expressing a past tense. Concerning the grammaticalization path ir a + INF and aller + INF were formerly used to express a past (historical present), whereas anar + INF also expressed a future (and can still take on this function). This paper discusses possible reasons for the development and the thus exceptional position of the Catalan past-periphrasis. In addition to morphological and normative explanations, language contact between Catalan and Spanish/ French as well as sociolinguistic circumstances are factors which may possibly account for the development of the Catalan construction. After a separate presentation of the development and the former and actual use(s) and forms of the three periphrasis, the cognitive processes which took place during the grammaticalization are presented. Afterward the three periphrasis are compared using the parameters of Lehmann. The second part of this paper consists of a corpus which verifies and illustrates the results of the previous part.
In this paper we investigate the comparative properties of empirically-estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy using a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models due to Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2005), Smets and Wouters (2007) and Taylor (1993a). Although these models differ in terms of structure, estimation method, sample period, and data vintage, we find surprisingly similar economic impacts of unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate. However, optimized monetary policy rules differ across models and lack robustness. Model averaging offers an effective strategy for improving the robustness of policy rules.
We show how Sestoft’s abstract machine for lazy evaluation of purely functional programs can be extended to evaluate expressions of the calculus CHF – a process calculus that models Concurrent Haskell extended by imperative and implicit futures. The abstract machine is modularly constructed by first adding monadic IO-actions to the machine and then in a second step we add concurrency. Our main result is that the abstract machine coincides with the original operational semantics of CHF, w.r.t. may- and should-convergence.
Der Beitrag arbeitet d’Alemberts Absicht heraus, durch eine mathematisch begründete Wissensordnung, die einen universellen Geltungsanspruch erhebt, die Dogmatik des religiösen Glaubens genauso wie die Autoritätshörigkeit der ständischen Gesellschaft zu diskreditieren und somit die bestehenden Machtverhältnisse zu destabilisieren. Mit der universalistischen Wissensordnung der Enzyklopädie soll schließlich auch eine neue normative Ordnung etabliert werden. Dabei ist die Rolle der Enzyklopädisten als Aufklärer der unaufgeklärten Gesellschaft Teil der universalistischen Wissensordnung. Obwohl sich die beanspruchte emanzipative Wirkung des enzyklopädischen Universalismus im historischen Kontext von Dogmatismus und Despotismus nachvollziehen lässt, stellt sich die Frage, inwieweit dieser universalistische Anspruch tatsächlich eine ‚kritischen Haltung’, wie sie von Foucault anhand Kants Schrift „Was ist Aufklärung?“ definiert wird, genügt oder doch nur eine ‚Wissenskritik’ bleibt. Die Haltungsfrage verweist auf d’Alemberts ambivalentes Verhältnis zu den politischen Autoritäten seiner Zeit.
In Germany, as in almost all industrial countries, active pharmaceutical substances can now be found in virtually all water bodies and occasionally also in drinking water. Even though the concentrations in question tend to be very low, there are initial signs of their impact on aquatic life. There is no evidence as yet of any acute consequences for human health. It is, however, impossible to rule out long-term consequences from these minimal concentrations or unexpected effects from the interaction between various active ingredients (cocktail effect). At special risk here are sensitive segments of the population such as children and the chronically ill. There is thus a need for action on precautionary grounds.
The main actors in the health system are largely unaware of the problem posed by drug residues in water. Although knowledge cannot be equated with awareness – given the existence of the ‘not wanting to know' phenomenon – the first step is to generate a consolidated knowledge base. Only by creating awareness of the problem can further strategies be implemented to ultimately enlighten and bring about behavioural change. At stake here is the overall everyday handling of medications, including prescription, compliance, and drug-free disease prevention down to the doctor-patient relationship. The latter, namely, is often characterised by misunderstandings and a lack of communication about the – supposed – need to prescribe drugs.
The first part of the strategy for the general public involves using various channels and media to address three different target groups. These were identified by ISOE in an empirical survey as reacting differently to the problem under review:
· ‘The Deniers/Relativists'
· ‘The Truth-Seekers'
· ‘The Hypersensitives'
The intention is to address each target group in the right tone and using the most suitable line of reasoning via specific media and with the proper degree of differentiation. The ‘Truth-Seekers' play an opinion-leading role here. They can be provided with highly differentiated information through sophisticated media which they then pass on to their dialogue partners in an appropriate form.
The second part of the strategy for the general public relates to the communication of proper disposal routes for expired drugs. The goal is to confine disposal to pharmacies so that on no account are they flushed down the sink or toilet. Based on an analysis of typical errors in existing communications media on this topic, ISOE prepared recommendations for drafting proper information materials.
In addressing pharmacists, the first priority is to convey hard facts: to this end we propose a PR campaign to place articles in the main specialist media. At the same time, the subject should feature in training and continuing education programmes. Another aim is to strengthen the advisory function of the pharmacies. The environmentally sensitive target group would indeed react positively to having their attention drawn to the issue of drug residues in water. For all other customers, the pharmacists can and should act as consultants: they emphasise how important it is to take medication as instructed (compliance) and use suitable pack sizes, and warn older customers in particular about the potential hazards of improper drug intake.
The first stage of the communications strategy for doctors likewise revolves around knowledge. Here, however, it is important to take into account their self-image as scientists while in fact having little grasp of this specific area. The line to take is that of ‘discursive selfenlightenment'. This means that the issue of drug residues in water cannot be conveyed to doctors by laymen but must be taken up and imparted via the major media of the medical profession and by medical association officials (top-down).
The second stage, namely that of raising doctors’ awareness of the problem, is likely to encounter strong resistance from some of the medical profession. They may fear a threat of interference in treatment plans from an environmental perspective and feel the need to emphasise that doctors are not responsible for environmental issues. As shown in empirical surveys by ISOE, such a defensive reaction is ultimately down to an underlying taboo: people are loath to discuss the over-prescription taking place in countless doctors' surgeries. And it is a fact that this problem cannot be tackled from the environmental perspective, although the goals of water protection are indeed consistent with the economic objectives of restraint in the deployment of drugs. Any communications measure for this target group has to bear in mind that doctors feel restricted by what they see as a ‘perpetual health reform' no matter which government is in power. On no account are they prepared to tolerate any new form of regulation, in this case for environmental reasons.
An entirely different view of the problem is taken by ‘critical doctors' such as specialists in environmental health and those with a naturopathic focus. They are interested in the problem because they see a connection between the quality of our environment and our health. What is more, they have patients keen to be prescribed as few drugs as possible and who are instead interested in ‘talking medicine'. So, any communication strategy intent on tackling the difficult problem of oversubscribing drugs needs to look carefully at the experiences of these medical professionals and also at a ‘bottom-up strategy'.
Implementation of strategic communications should be entrusted to an agency with experience in ‘issue management'. Knowledge of social marketing and the influencing of behaviour are further prerequisites. All important decisions should be taken by a consensus committee (‘MeriWa'1 round table), in which the medical profession, pharmacists and consumers are represented.
Bei der Information und Sensibilisierung von Eigenheimbesitzer/innen für das Thema
Energie und CO2-Einsparung im Gebäudesektor stehen bislang vor allem breitenwirksame
Instrumente zur Verfügung. Dialogische Kommunikationsangebote, die in anderen
Bereichen des Nachhaltigkeitsmarketing eingesetzt werden, sind bislang nur wenig
verbreitet.
In dem vorliegenden Arbeitspapier werden die Bausteine einer integrierten Kommunikationsstrategie
für eine energetische Gebäudesanierung beleuchtet. Nach dem Verständnis
der Autor/innen umfasst eine solche Strategie monologisches und dialogisches
Marketing, Energieberatung sowie Markenbildung. Gestützt auf konzeptionelle
Überlegungen und empirische Ergebnisse werden im ersten Teil grundlegende Ziele
und Elemente einer dialogischen Kommunikationsstrategie für eine energetische Sanierung
erläutert. Im zweiten Teil illustrieren konkrete Beispiele, wie unter anderem
eine dialogische Kommunikation für unterschiedliche Sanierungsanlässe in der Praxis
gestaltet werden kann.
This paper examines data on financial sophistication among the U.S. older population, using a special-purpose module implemented in the Health and Retirement Study. We show that financial sophistication is deficient for older respondents (aged 55+). Specifically, many in this group lack a basic grasp of asset pricing, risk diversification, portfolio choice, and investment fees. Subpopulations with particular deficits include women, the least educated, persons over the age of 75, and non-Whites. In view of the fact that people are increasingly being asked to take on responsibility for their own retirement security, such lack of knowledge can have serious implications.
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (1960s–1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s–2007), and recent substantial rise (2008–2011) can be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the long-term saving decline, while fluctuations in wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.