TY  - UNPD
A1  - Krueger, Dirk
A1  - Ludwig, Alexander
T1  - On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital and the distribution of wealth and welfare
T2  - Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 2006,18
N2  - This paper employs a multi-country large scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is “importing” the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital. Klassifizierung: E17, E25, D33, C68
T3  - CFS working paper series - 2006, 18 
KW  - Population Aging
KW  - International Capital Flows
KW  - Distribution of Welfare
KW  - USA
KW  - Bevölkerungsentwicklung
KW  - Kapitalertrag
KW  - Kapitalgewinn
KW  - Vermögensumverteilung
KW  - Vermögensverteilung
KW  - Verteilungsgerechtigkeit
KW  - Wohlfahrtseffekt
KW  - Prognose
KW  - Mehrgenerationenmodell
KW  - OECD
KW  - Altersstruktur
Y1  - 2006
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/2301
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-30952
IS  - August 1, 2006
ER  -