TY - JOUR A1 - Estes, Chris A1 - Anstee, Quentin M. A1 - Arias-Loste, María Teresa A1 - Bantel, Heike A1 - Bellentani, Stefano A1 - Caballeria, Joan A1 - Colombo, Massimo A1 - Craxi, Antonio A1 - Crespo, Javier A1 - Day, Christopher P. A1 - Eguchi, Yuichiro A1 - Geier, Andreas A1 - Kondili, Loreta A. A1 - Kroy, Daniela Christina A1 - Lazarus, Jeffrey V. A1 - Loomba, Rohit A1 - Manns, Michael P. A1 - Marchesini, Giulio A1 - Nakajima, Atsushi A1 - Negro, Francesco A1 - Petta, Salvatore A1 - Ratziu, Vlad A1 - Romero-Gomez, Manuel A1 - Sanyal, Arun A1 - Schattenberg, Jörn Markus A1 - Tacke, Frank A1 - Tanaka, Junko A1 - Trautwein, Christian A1 - Wei, Lai A1 - Zeuzem, Stefan A1 - Razavi, Homie T1 - Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016-2030 T2 - Journal of hepatology N2 - Background & Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years. KW - Burden of disease KW - Cardiovascular disease KW - Health care resource utilization KW - Metabolic syndrome KW - NAFLD KW - NASH KW - Cirrhosis KW - HCC KW - Diabetes mellitus KW - Obesity Y1 - 2018 UR - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/51699 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-516997 SN - 1600-0641 SN - 0168-8278 N1 - © 2018 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) VL - 69 IS - 4 SP - 896 EP - 904 PB - Elsevier Science ; Wiley-Blackwell CY - Amsterdam [u.a.] ; [s. l.] ER -