TY  - UNPD
A1  - Carroll, Christopher D.
A1  - Slacalek, Jiri
T1  - The American consumer: reforming, or just resting?
T2  - Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 2009,12
N2  - American households have received a triple dose of bad news since the beginning of the current recession: The greatest collapse in asset values since the Great Depression, a sharp tightening in credit availability, and a large increase in unemployment risk. We present measures of the size of these shocks and discuss what a benchmark theory says about their immediate and ultimate consequences. We then provide a forecast based on a simple empirical model that captures the effects of wealth shocks and unemployment fears. Our short-term forecast calls for somewhat weaker spending, and somewhat higher saving rates, than the Consensus survey of macroeconomic forecasters. Over the longer term, our best guess is that the personal saving rate will eventually approach the levels that preceded period of financial liberalization that began in the late 1970s. Classification: C61, D11, E24
T3  - CFS working paper series - 2009, 12 
KW  - Consumption/Saving Forecast
KW  - Credit Crunch
KW  - Financial Crisis
KW  - USA
KW  - Haushalt
KW  - Immaterieller Anlagewert
KW  - Kreditgewährung
KW  - Arbeitslosigkeit
Y1  - 2009
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/6730
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-68317
ER  -