TY  - UNPD
A1  - Geppert, Christian
A1  - Ludwig, Alexander
A1  - Abiry, Raphael
T1  - Secular stagnation? Growth, asset returns and welfare in the next decades: first results
T2  - SAFE working paper series ; No. 145
N2  - Ongoing demographic change will lead to a relative scarcity of raw labor to the effect that output growth will be decreasing in the next decades, a secular stagnation. As physical capital will be relatively abundant, this decrease of output will be accompanied by reductions of asset returns. We quantify these effects for the US economy by developing an overlapping generations model with risky and risk-free assets. Without adjustments of human capital, risky returns decrease until 2035 by about 0.7 percentage point, and the risk-free rate by about one percentage point, leading to substantial welfare losses for asset rich households. Per capita output is reduced by 6%. Endogenous human capital adjustments strongly mitigate these effects. We conclude that human capital policies will be crucial in the context of labor shortages.
T3  - SAFE working paper - 145 
KW  - secular stagnation
KW  - demographic change
KW  - overlapping generations
KW  - natural rate
KW  - equity premium
KW  - growth
KW  - welfare
KW  - human capital
Y1  - 2016
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/41697
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-416971
UR  - https://ssrn.com/abstract=2841555
IS  - September 8, 2016
PB  - SAFE
CY  - Frankfurt am Main
ER  -