TY  - RPRT
A1  - Vilkov, Grigory
A1  - Xiao, Yan
T1  - Option-implied information and predictability of extreme returns : [Version 24 September 2012]
N2  - We study whether option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, contains information about future returns, especially the negative ones. Our tail loss measure predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above other option-implied variables. Stock-specific tail loss measure predicts individual expected returns and magnitude of realized stock-specific crashes in the cross-section of stocks. An investor, especially the one who cares about the left tail of her wealth distribution (e.g., disappointment-averse), benefits from using the tail loss measure as an information variable to construct managed portfolios of a risk-free asset and market index. The tail loss measure is motivated by the results of the extreme value theory, and it is computed from observed prices of out-of-the-money put as the risk-neutral expected value of a loss beyond a given relative threshold.
KW  - extreme value theory
KW  - tail measure
KW  - implied correlation
KW  - variance risk premium
KW  - option-implied distribution
KW  - predictability
KW  - portfolio optimization
Y1  - 2012
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/34799
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-347996
IS  - Version 24 September 2012
ER  -