TY  - UNPD
A1  - Gross, Daniel
T1  - Trade flows and the international business cycle
T2  - Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 2001,12
N2  - We investigate into the role of the trade channel as important determinant of a country's current account position and the degree of business cycle synchronization with the rest of the world by comparing the predictions of two types of DGE models. It is shown that the behavior of a country's external balance and the international transmission of shocks depends amongst other things on two factors: i) the magnitude of trade interdependence, ii) the degree of substitutability between importable and domestically-produced goods. Using time series data on bilateral trade flows, we estimate the magnitude of trade interdependence and the elasticity of substitution between importable and domestic goods for the G7 countries. Given these estimates, idiosyncratic supply shocks potentially induce changes in the current account and foreign output that vary in direction and magnitude across G7 countries. The relationship between the magnitude of foreign trade and the import substitutability with various correlation measures is examined empirically in a cross-sectional dimension. First Draft, July 2001. Final Draft, November 2001. Klassifikation: E32, F41
T3  - CFS working paper series - 2001, 12 
KW  - Intratemporal Elasticity of Substitution
KW  - Bilateral Trade Flows
KW  - Current Account
KW  - DGE Models
KW  - G-7-Staaten
KW  - Internationaler Konjunkturzusammenhang
KW  - Außenwirtschaft
KW  - Welthandel
KW  - Weltwirtschaft
KW  - Import
KW  - Substitutionselastizität
KW  - Leistungsbilanz
KW  - Schock <Wirtschaft>
KW  - Realer-Konjunkturzyklus-Theorie
KW  - Schätzung
Y1  - 2001
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/4510
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-9890
N1  - First Draft, July 2001 ;Final Draft, November 2001
IS  - Version November 2001
ER  -