TY  - RPRT
A1  - Linhard, Frank
T1  - Formal and non-formal approaches to the notion of "Risk" : a historical perspective
N2  - The paper will focus on the early texts of Galileo Galilei (1613~1623) and Daniel Bernoulli (1738) as examples of pure combinatorical analysis and perspectively considerations within the mathematical discipline of probability theory. It is argued that Bernoulli's approach needed to be developed further in order to achieve a successful and satisfactory theory of risk. In modern economy the need for a proper definition of a notion of risk is seen and currently discussed within the frame of ISO standards. But as already mentioned this interest is mainly owed to the governmental demands of the Basel II and Solvency standards and therefore an external demand. On the other hand an intrinsic understanding of the meaning of risk, as could be provided by a conclusive theory, could lead to a better success in modelling various risks and help to achieve better prognosis.
KW  - Risikotheorie
KW  - Wahrgenommenes Risiko
KW  - Relatives Risiko
KW  - Risikoanalyse
KW  - Entscheidung bei Risiko
KW  - Risiko
KW  - Galilei
KW  - Bernoulli
KW  - mathematische Beschreibung
KW  - Risiko
KW  - Galilei
KW  - Bernoulli
KW  - mathematical description
Y1  - 2008
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/6957
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-69892
ER  -