TY - JOUR A1 - Milkau, Udo A1 - Bott, Jürgen T1 - Active management of operational risk in the regimes of the "unknown": What can machine learning or heuristics deliver? T2 - Risks N2 - Advanced machine learning has achieved extraordinary success in recent years. “Active” operational risk beyond ex post analysis of measured-data machine learning could provide help beyond the regime of traditional statistical analysis when it comes to the “known unknown” or even the “unknown unknown.” While machine learning has been tested successfully in the regime of the “known,” heuristics typically provide better results for an active operational risk management (in the sense of forecasting). However, precursors in existing data can open a chance for machine learning to provide early warnings even for the regime of the “unknown unknown.” KW - operational risk KW - artificial intelligence KW - machine learning KW - heuristics KW - machine reasoning Y1 - 2018 UR - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/51545 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-515458 SN - 2227-9091 N1 - © 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). VL - 6 IS - 41 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER -