TY  - UNPD
A1  - Grevenbrock, Nils
A1  - Groneck, Max
A1  - Ludwig, Alexander
A1  - Zimper, Alexander
T1  - Cognition, optimism and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs
T2  - SAFE working paper series ; No. 200
N2  - This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in empirically estimated deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions (PWFs), as documented in experimental prospect theory. Our estimates suggest that the implied measures for cognitive weakness, likelihood insensitivity, and those for motivational biases, relative pessimism, increase with age. We document that direct measures of cognitive weakness and motivational attitudes share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of subjective survival beliefs. In particular, cognitive weakness is an increasingly important contributor to the overestimation of survival chances in old age.
T3  - SAFE working paper - 200 
KW  - Subjective Survival Beliefs
KW  - Probability Weighting Function
KW  - Confirmatory Bias
KW  - Cognition
KW  - Optimism
Y1  - 2018
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/45773
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-457733
UR  - https://ssrn.com/abstract=3124791
PB  - SAFE
CY  - Frankfurt am Main
ER  -