TY  - UNPD
A1  - Adam, Klaus
T1  - Learning to forecast and cyclical behavior of output and inflation
T2  - Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 2003,01
N2  - This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with the help of econometric models. Agents use least squares learning to estimate two competing models of which one is consistent with rational expectations once learning is complete. When past performance governs the choice of forecast model, agents may prefer to use the inconsistent forecast model, which generates an equilibrium where forecasts are inefficient. While average output and inflation result the same as under rational expectations, higher moments differ substantially: output and inflation show persistence, inflation responds sluggishly to nominal disturbances, and the dynamic correlations of output and inflation match U.S. data surprisingly well.
T3  - CFS working paper series - 2003, 01 
KW  - Learning
KW  - Business Cycles
KW  - Rational Expectations
KW  - Inefficient Forecasts
KW  - Output and Inflation Persistence
KW  - Inflation
KW  - Prognose
KW  - Ökonometrisches Modell
Y1  - 2003
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/4486
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-10071
ER  -