TY - UNPD A1 - Carletti, Elena A1 - Oliviero, Tommaso A1 - Pagano, Marco A1 - Pelizzon, Loriana A1 - Subrahmanyam, Marti G. T1 - The COVID-19 shock and equity shortfall: firm-level evidence from Italy T2 - SAFE working paper series ; No. 285 N2 - We employ a representative sample of 80,972 Italian firms to forecast the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 lockdown. A 3-month lockdown generates an aggregate yearly drop in profits of about 10% of GDP, and 17% of sample firms, which employ 8.8% of the sample’s employees, become financially distressed. Distress is more frequent for small and medium-sized enterprises, for firms with high pre-COVID-19 leverage, and for firms belonging to the Manufacturing and Wholesale Trading sectors. Listed companies are less likely to enter distress, whereas the correlation between distress rates and family firm ownership is unclear. (JEL G01, G32, G33) T3 - SAFE working paper - 285 KW - COVID-19 KW - pandemics KW - losses KW - distress KW - equity KW - recapitalization Y1 - 2020 UR - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/55245 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-552455 UR - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3671396 IS - July 27, 2020 PB - SAFE CY - Frankfurt am Main ER -