The status and challenge of global fire modelling

  • Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

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Author:Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew ForrestORCiD, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas HicklerORCiD, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Chao Yue
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-424269
DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016
ISSN:1726-4189
ISSN:1726-4170
Parent Title (English):Biogeosciences
Publisher:Copernicus
Place of publication:Katlenburg-Lindau [u. a.]
Contributor(s):Aleksandr Vladimirovič Eliseev
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2016/12/12
Date of first Publication:2016/06/09
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2016/12/12
Volume:13
Issue:11
Page Number:17
First Page:3359
Last Page:3375
Note:
© Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
HeBIS-PPN:423971336
Institutes:Geowissenschaften / Geographie / Geowissenschaften
Biowissenschaften / Biowissenschaften
Angeschlossene und kooperierende Institutionen / Senckenbergische Naturforschende Gesellschaft
Fachübergreifende Einrichtungen / Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum (BiK-F)
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 57 Biowissenschaften; Biologie / 570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie
Sammlungen:Universitätspublikationen
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung 3.0