How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?
- Policymakers attach an important role to the macroeconomic outlook of households. Using a representative online panel form the U.S., the authors examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior and provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. The authors find that groups with the largest exposure to aggregate risk, such as individuals working in cyclical industries, are most likely to respond to an improved macroeconomic outlook, while a large fraction of the population is unlikely to react.
| Author: | Christopher Roth, Johannes Wohlfart |
|---|---|
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-488037 |
| URL: | https://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/de/forschung/imfs-working-papers.html |
| Parent Title (English): | Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; 128 |
| Series (Serial Number): | Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (128) |
| Publisher: | Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability |
| Place of publication: | Frankfurt am Main |
| Document Type: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Year of Completion: | 2018 |
| Year of first Publication: | 2018 |
| Publishing Institution: | Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg |
| Release Date: | 2019/03/05 |
| Tag: | aggregate uncertainty; expectation formation; information; macroeconomic conditions; updating |
| Page Number: | 77 |
| HeBIS-PPN: | 447170384 |
| Institutes: | Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) | |
| Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS) | |
| Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE) | |
| Dewey Decimal Classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft |
| Sammlungen: | Universitätspublikationen |
| Licence (German): |  Deutsches Urheberrecht |
