How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior?

  • Policymakers attach an important role to the macroeconomic outlook of households. Using a representative online panel form the U.S., the authors examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior and provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. The authors find that groups with the largest exposure to aggregate risk, such as individuals working in cyclical industries, are most likely to respond to an improved macroeconomic outlook, while a large fraction of the population is unlikely to react.

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Metadaten
Author:Christopher Roth, Johannes Wohlfart
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-488037
URL:https://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/de/forschung/imfs-working-papers.html
Parent Title (English):Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; 128
Series (Serial Number):Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (128)
Publisher:Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability
Place of publication:Frankfurt am Main
Document Type:Working Paper
Language:English
Year of Completion:2018
Year of first Publication:2018
Publishing Institution:Universit├Ątsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2019/03/05
Tag:aggregate uncertainty; expectation formation; information; macroeconomic conditions; updating
Page Number:77
HeBIS-PPN:447170384
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Sammlungen:Universit├Ątspublikationen
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht