The search result changed since you submitted your search request. Documents might be displayed in a different sort order.
  • search hit 4 of 5
Back to Result List

Comparing projections of future changes in runoff and water resources from hydrological and ecosystem models in ISI-MIP

  • Projections of future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed. Projections of change from the baseline period (1981–2010) to the future (2070–2099) from a number of different ecosystems and hydrological models were studied. The differences between projections from the two types of model were looked at globally and regionally. Typically, across different regions the ecosystem models tended to project larger increases and smaller decreases in runoff than the hydrological models. However, the differences varied both regionally and seasonally. Sensitivity experiments were also used to investigate the contributions of varying CO2 and allowing vegetation distribution to evolve on projected changes in runoff. In two out of four models which had data available from CO2 sensitivity experiments, allowing CO2 to vary was found to increase runoff more than keeping CO2 constant, while in two models runoff decreased. This suggests more uncertainty in runoff responses to elevated CO2 than previously considered. As CO2 effects on evapotranspiration via stomatal conductance and leaf-area index are more commonly included in ecosystems models than in hydrological models, this may partially explain some of the difference between model types. Keeping the vegetation distribution static in JULES runs had much less effect on runoff projections than varying CO2, but this may be more pronounced if looked at over a longer timescale as vegetation changes may take longer to reach a new state.

Download full text files

Export metadata

Additional Services

Share in Twitter Search Google Scholar
Metadaten
Author:Jemma C. S. Davie, Peter D. Falloon, Ron Kahana, Rutger Dankers, Richard Betts, Felix Theodor Portmann, Douglas B. Clark, Akihiko Itoh, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Kazuya Nishina, Balazs M. Fekete, Zachary Tessler, Xingcai Liu, Qiuhong TangORCiD, Stefan Hagemann, Tobias StackeORCiD, Ryan Pavlick, Sibyll Schaphoff, Simon N. GoslingORCiDGND, Wietse Franssen, Nigel Arnell
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-257983
DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-279-2013
ISSN:2190-4995
Parent Title (English):Earth System Dynamics Discussions
Publisher:Copernicus Publ.
Place of publication:Göttingen
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2013/02/13
Date of first Publication:2013/02/13
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2013/02/27
Volume:4
Page Number:37
First Page:279
Last Page:315
Note:
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
HeBIS-PPN:332966003
Institutes:Geowissenschaften / Geographie / Geowissenschaften
Angeschlossene und kooperierende Institutionen / Senckenbergische Naturforschende Gesellschaft
Fachübergreifende Einrichtungen / Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum (BiK-F)
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Sammlungen:Universitätspublikationen
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung 3.0