Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system

  • Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which in particular contribute quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). QPFs are accompanied by large uncertainties, especially for longer lead times, which are propagated within the hydrometeorological model system. To deal with this limitation of predictability, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS that downscales the global ECMWF ensemble to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m. Earlier studies have mostly addressed the potential benefits of hydrometeorological ensemble systems in short case studies. Here we present an analysis of hydrological ensemble hindcasts for two years (2005 and 2006). It is shown that the ensemble covers the uncertainty during different weather situations with appropriate spread. The ensemble also shows advantages over a corresponding deterministic forecast, even under consideration of an artificial spread.

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Author:Simon Jaun, Bodo AhrensORCiDGND
Parent Title (English):Hydrology and earth system sciences
Publisher:European Geosciences Union
Place of publication:Katlenburg-Lindau
Contributor(s):F. Pappenberger
Document Type:Article
Date of Publication (online):2009/08/10
Date of first Publication:2009/07/08
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2009/08/10
Page Number:13
First Page:1031
Last Page:1043
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Source:Discussion Paper: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 6, 1843-1877, 2009 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/6/1843/2009/ ; Final revised paper: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 13, 1031-1043, 2009 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sc
Institutes:Geowissenschaften / Geographie / Geowissenschaften
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung 3.0