Formal and non-formal approaches to the notion of "Risk" : a historical perspective

  • The paper will focus on the early texts of Galileo Galilei (1613~1623) and Daniel Bernoulli (1738) as examples of pure combinatorical analysis and perspectively considerations within the mathematical discipline of probability theory. It is argued that Bernoulli's approach needed to be developed further in order to achieve a successful and satisfactory theory of risk. In modern economy the need for a proper definition of a notion of risk is seen and currently discussed within the frame of ISO standards. But as already mentioned this interest is mainly owed to the governmental demands of the Basel II and Solvency standards and therefore an external demand. On the other hand an intrinsic understanding of the meaning of risk, as could be provided by a conclusive theory, could lead to a better success in modelling various risks and help to achieve better prognosis.

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Author:Frank LinhardGND
Document Type:Report
Year of Completion:2008
Year of first Publication:2008
Publishing Institution:Universit├Ątsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Contributing Corporation:Institut f├╝r Geschichte der Naturwissenschaften
Release Date:2009/09/10
Tag:Bernoulli; Galilei; Risiko; mathematische Beschreibung
Bernoulli; Galilei; Risiko; mathematical description
GND Keyword:Risikotheorie; Wahrgenommenes Risiko; Relatives Risiko; Risikoanalyse; Entscheidung bei Risiko
Institutes:Physik / Physik
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 51 Mathematik / 510 Mathematik
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht