Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod

  • Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are <5°C, and negative for higher temperatures. Using the relationship derived, it is possible to predict expected changes in population-specific reproductive rates and carrying capacities resulting from temperature increases. Further, carrying capacity covaries with available habitat size, explaining at least half its variability across stocks. These patterns improve our understanding of environmental impacts on key population parameters, which is required for an ecosystem approach to cod management, particularly under ocean-warming scenarios. Key words: carrying capacity , cod , hierarchical models , North Atlantic , temperature , uncertainty

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Author:Irene Mantzouni, Helle Sørensen, Robert B. O'HaraORCiD, Brian R. MacKenzie
Parent Title (German):ICES Journal of Marine Science
Document Type:Article
Date of Publication (online):2010/11/12
Year of first Publication:2010
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2010/11/12
Tag:North Atlantic; carrying capacity; cod; hierarchical models; temperature; uncertainty
First Page:833
Last Page:855
© 2010 The Author(s). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/uk/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Source:ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67, S. 833-855 ; doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsp291
Institutes:Geowissenschaften / Geographie / Geowissenschaften
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 57 Biowissenschaften; Biologie / 570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie
Sammlung Biologie / Sondersammelgebiets-Volltexte
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht