A greenium for the next generation EU green bonds : analysis of a potential green bond premium and its drivers

  • As part of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) program, the European Commission has pledged to issue up to EUR 250 billion of the NGEU bonds as green bonds, in order to confirm their commitment to sustainable finance and to support the transition towards a greener Europe. Thereby, the EU is not only entering the green bond market, but also set to become one of the biggest green bond issuers. Consequently, financial market participants are eager to know what to expect from the EU as a new green bond issuer and whether a negative green bond premium, a so-called Greenium, can be expected for the NGEU green bonds. This research paper formulates an expectation in regards to a potential Greenium for the NGEU green bonds, by conducting an interview with 15 sustainable finance experts and analyzing the public green bond market from September 2014 until June 2021, with respect to a potential green bond premium and its underlying drivers. The regression results confirm the existence of a significant Greenium (-0.7 bps) in the public green bond market and that the Greenium increases for supranational issuers with AAA rating, such as the EU. Moreover, the green bond premium is influenced by issuer sector and credit rating, but issue size and modified duration have no significant effect. Overall, the evaluated expert interviews and regression analysis lead to an expected Greenium for the NGEU green bonds of up to -4 bps, with the potential to further increase in the secondary market.

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Author:Isabelle Cathérine Hinsche
Parent Title (English):Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 663
Series (Serial Number):CFS working paper series (663)
Publisher:Center for Financial Studies
Place of publication:Frankfurt am Main
Document Type:Working Paper
Year of Completion:2021
Year of first Publication:2021
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2021/11/22
Tag:EU Bonds; Environmental; Green Bonds; Green Finance; Greenium; Next Generation EU; Social and Governance (ESG); Sustainable Finance; Sustainable Investing
Issue:August 21st 2021
Page Number:73
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
JEL-Classification:C Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / C2 Single Equation Models; Single Variables / C23 Models with Panel Data
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht