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- Climatic conditions (1)
- Ecological requirements (1)
- Gambusia affinis (1)
- Gambusia holbrooki (1)
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- Species distribution modelling (1)
- global climate change (1)
- invasion risk assessment (1)
Highlights
• Three ecological groups were identified based on distributional patterns.
• Old assessments were confirmed with the latest occurrence data.
• For each group, we derived different population trends in times of global change.
• Global change elevates importance of vector-borne diseases.
• Our results serve as base for effective Simuliidae monitoring.
Abstract
The black fly genus Simulium includes medically and ecologically important species, characterized by a wide variation of ecological niches largely determining their distributional patterns. In a rapidly changing environment, species-specific niche characteristics determine whether a species benefits or not. With aquatic egg, larval and pupal stages followed by a terrestrial adult phase, their spatial arrangements depend upon the interplay of aquatic conditions and climatic-landscape parameters in the terrestrial realm. The aim of this study was to enhance the understanding of the distributional patterns among Simulium species and their ecological drivers. In an ecological niche modelling approach, we focused on 12 common black fly species with different ecological requirements. Our modelling was based on available distribution data along with five stream variables describing the climatic, land-cover, and topographic conditions of river catchments. The modelled freshwater habitat suitability was spatially interpolated to derive an estimate of the adult black flies' probability of occurrence. Based on similarities in the spatial patterns of modelled habitat suitability we were able to identify three biogeographical groups, which allows us to confirm old assessments with current occurrence data: (A) montane species, (B) broad range species and (C) lowland species. The five veterinary and human medical relevant species Simulium equinum, S. erythrocephalum, S. lineatum, S. ornatum and S. reptans are mainly classified in the lowland species group. In the course of climatic changes, it is expected that biocoenosis will slightly shift towards upstream regions, so that the lowland group will presumably emerge as the winner. This is mainly explained by wider ecological niches, including a higher temperature tolerance and tolerance to various pollutants. In conclusion, these findings have significant implications for human and animal health. As exposure to relevant Simulium species increases, it becomes imperative to remain vigilant, particularly in investigating the potential transmission of pathogens.
Aim: Formerly introduced for their presumed value in controlling mosquito-borne diseases, the two mosquitofish Gambusia affinis and G. holbrooki (Poeciliidae) are now among the world's most widespread invasive alien species, negatively impacting aquatic ecosystems around the world. These inconspicuous freshwater fish are, once their presence is noticed, difficult to eradicate. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to assess their geographic potential and to identify their likely ability to persist under novel climatic conditions.
Location Global.
Methods We build species distribution models using occurrence data from the native and introduced distribution ranges to identify putative niche shifts and further ascertain the areas climatically suitable for the establishment and possible spread of mosquitofish.
Results We found significant niche expansions into climatic regions outside their natural climatic conditions, emphasizing the importance of integrating climatic niches of both native and invasive ranges into projections. In particular, there was a marked shift toward tropical regions in Asia and a clear niche shift of European G. holbrooki. This ecological flexibility partly explains the massive success of the two species, and substantially increases the risk for further range expansion. We also showed that the potential for additional expansion resulting from climate change is enormous—especially in Europe.
Main conclusions Despite the successful invasion history and ongoing range expansions, many countries still lack proper preventive measures. Thus, we urge policy makers to carefully evaluate the risk both mosquitofish pose to a particular area and to initiate appropriate management strategies.