TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ahrens, Bodo
A1  - Jaun, Simon
T1  - On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation-based ensembles
T2  - Advances in geosciences
N2  - Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS). The observational references in the evaluation are (a) analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b) ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty) or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2) of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.
Y1  - 2007
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/1028
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30-44610
UR  - http://www.adv-geosci.net/10/139/2007
SN  - 1680-7340
SN  - 1680-7359
N1  - © Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under the 
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
VL  - 10
SP  - 139
EP  - 144
PB  - Copernicus-Ges.
CY  - Katlenburg-Lindau
ER  -