TY  - JOUR
A1  - Müller Schmied, Hannes
A1  - Adam, Linda
A1  - Eisner, Stephanie
A1  - Fink, Gabriel
A1  - Flörke, Martina
A1  - Kim, Hyungjun
A1  - Oki, Taikan
A1  - Portmann, Felix Theodor
A1  - Reinecke, Robert
A1  - Riedel, Claudia
A1  - Song, Qi
A1  - Zhang, Jing
A1  - Döll, Petra
T1  - Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components
T2  - Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
N2  - The assessment of water balance components using global hydrological models is subject to climate forcing uncertainty as well as to an increasing intensity of human water use within the 20th century. The uncertainty of five state-of-the-art climate forcings and the resulting range of cell runoff that is simulated by the global hydrological model WaterGAP is presented. On the global land surface, about 62 % of precipitation evapotranspires, whereas 38 % discharges into oceans and inland sinks. During 1971–2000, evapotranspiration due to human water use amounted to almost 1 % of precipitation, while this anthropogenic water flow increased by a factor of approximately 5 between 1901 and 2010. Deviation of estimated global discharge from the ensemble mean due to climate forcing uncertainty is approximately 4 %. Precipitation uncertainty is the most important reason for the uncertainty of discharge and evapotranspiration, followed by shortwave downward radiation. At continental levels, deviations of water balance components due to uncertain climate forcing are higher, with the highest discharge deviations occurring for river discharge in Africa (−6 to 11 % from the ensemble mean). Uncertain climate forcings also affect the estimation of irrigation water use and thus the estimated human impact of river discharge. The uncertainty range of global irrigation water consumption amounts to approximately 50 % of the global sum of water consumption in the other water use sector.
Y1  - 2016
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/45056
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-450561
SN  - 2199-899X
N1  - © Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
VL  - 374
SP  - 53
EP  - 62
PB  - Copernicus Publ.
CY  - Göttingen
ER  -