TY  - JOUR
A1  - Rahim-Wöstefeld, Sonja
A1  - Kronsteiner, Dorothea
A1  - El-Sayed, Shirin
A1  - Sayed, Nihad el
A1  - Eickholz, Peter
A1  - Pretzl, Bernadette
T1  - Development of a prognostic tool: based on risk factors for tooth loss after active periodontal therapy
T2  - Clinical oral investigations
N2  - Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic tool to estimate long-term tooth retention in periodontitis patients at the beginning of active periodontal therapy (APT). Material and methods: Tooth-related factors (type, location, bone loss (BL), infrabony defects, furcation involvement (FI), abutment status), and patient-related factors (age, gender, smoking, diabetes, plaque control record) were investigated in patients who had completed APT 10 years before. Descriptive analysis was performed, and a generalized linear-mixed model-tree was used to identify predictors for the main outcome variable tooth loss. To evaluate goodness-of-fit, the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated using cross-validation. A bootstrap approach was used to robustly identify risk factors while avoiding overfitting. Results: Only a small percentage of teeth was lost during 10 years of supportive periodontal therapy (SPT; 0.15/year/patient). The risk factors abutment function, diabetes, and the risk indicator BL, FI, and age (≤ 61 vs. > 61) were identified to predict tooth loss. The prediction model reached an AUC of 0.77. Conclusion: This quantitative prognostic model supports data-driven decision-making while establishing a treatment plan in periodontitis patients. In light of this, the presented prognostic tool may be of supporting value. Clinical relevance: In daily clinical practice, a quantitative prognostic tool may support dentists with data-based decision-making. However, it should be stressed that treatment planning is strongly associated with the patient’s wishes and adherence. The tool described here may support establishment of an individual treatment plan for periodontally compromised patients.
KW  - Prognostic tool
KW  - Model
KW  - Periodontal treatment
KW  - Tooth loss
KW  - Risk factors
Y1  - 2021
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/62792
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-627920
SN  - 1436-3771
N1  - Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. This study was self-funded by the authors and their institutions.
VL  - 26
IS  - 1
SP  - 813
EP  - 822
PB  - Springer
CY  - Berlin ; Heidelberg
ER  -