TY - UNPD A1 - Hendricks, Lutz A1 - Leukhina, Oksana T1 - How risky is college investment? T2 - Center for Financial Studies (Frankfurt am Main): CFS working paper series ; No. 502 N2 - This paper is motivated by the fact that nearly half of U.S. college students drop out without earning a bachelor’s degree. Its objective is to quantify how much uncertainty college entrants face about their graduation outcomes. To do so, we develop a quantitative model of college choice. The innovation is to model in detail how students progress towards a college degree. The model is calibrated using transcript and financial data. We find that more than half of college entrants can predict whether they will graduate with at least 80% probability. As a result, stylized policies that insure students against the financial risks associated with uncertain graduation have little value for the majority of college entrants. T3 - CFS working paper series - 502 Y1 - 2015 UR - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/37016 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-370162 UR - http://ssrn.com/abstract=2560194 IS - January 30, 2015 EP - 46 PB - Center for Financial Studies CY - Frankfurt, M. ER -