TY  - UNPD
A1  - Li, Wenhui
A1  - Wilde, Christian
T1  - Belief formation and belief updating under ambiguity : evidence from experiments
T2  - SAFE working paper series ; No. 251
N2  - Decisions under ambiguity depend on both the belief regarding possible scenarios and the attitude towards ambiguity. This paper exclusively investigates the belief formation and belief updating process under ambiguity, using laboratory experiments. The results show that half of the subjects tend to adopt a simple heuristic strategy when updating beliefs, while the other half seems to partially adopt the Bayesian updates. We recover beliefs, represented by distributions of the priors/posteriors. The recoverable initial priors mostly follow a uniform distribution. We also find that subjects on average demonstrate slight pessimism in an ambiguous environment.
T3  - SAFE working paper - 251 
KW  - ambiguity
KW  - learning strategy
KW  - belief updates
KW  - non-Bayesian updates
KW  - pessimism
KW  - laboratory experiments
Y1  - 2019
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/50468
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-504688
UR  - https://ssrn.com/abstract=3399983
IS  - Preliminary version June 2, 2019
PB  - SAFE
CY  - Frankfurt am Main
ER  -