TY  - UNPD
A1  - Finck, David
A1  - Tillmann, Peter
T1  - The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain disruptions
T2  - Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; 178
N2  - Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. The authors estimate the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Their empirical model combines business cycle variables with data from international container trade.

Using a novel identification scheme, they augment conventional sign restrictions on the impulse responses by narrative information about three episodes: the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, the Suez Canal obstruction in 2021, and the Shanghai backlog in 2022. They show that a global supply chain shock causes a drop in euro area real economic activity and a strong increase in consumer prices. Over a horizon of one year, the global supply chain shock explains about 30% of inflation dynamics. They also use regional data on supply chain pressure to isolate shocks originating in China.

Their results show that supply chain disruptions originating in China are an important driver for unexpected movements in industrial production, while disruptions originating outside China are an especially important driver for the dynamics of consumer prices.
T3  - Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability - 178 
KW  - Container Trade
KW  - Supply Chain
KW  - Inflation
KW  - Narrative Identification
KW  - Sign Restrictions
Y1  - 2023
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/69180
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-691800
UR  - https://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/de/forschung/imfs-working-papers/details/mm_publication/detail/publication/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-global-supply-chain-disruptions.html
N1  - JEL-Klassifikation:
F International Economics / F6 Economic Impacts of Globalization / F62 Macroeconomic Impacts
PB  - Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability
CY  - Frankfurt am Main
ER  -