TY  - UNPD
A1  - Güntner, Jochen
A1  - Reif, Magnus
A1  - Wolters, Maik H.
T1  - Sudden stop: supply and demand shocks in the german natural gas market
N2  - We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects tend to be moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse supply
shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared to what we observe in the data.
T3  - Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability - 206 
KW  - Energy crisis
KW  - German natural gas market
KW  - narrative sign restrictions
KW  - natural gas price
KW  - structural scenario analysis
KW  - vector-autoregression
Y1  - 2024
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/80168
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-801687
UR  - https://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/forschung/imfs-working-papers/details.html?tx_mmpublications_publicationsdetail%5Bcontroller%5D=Publication&tx_mmpublications_publicationsdetail%5Bpublication%5D=484&cHash=f0e386f8d916d66547f0683e6f4fc842
PB  - Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability
CY  - Frankfurt am Main
ER  -