TY  - UNPD
A1  - Hoffmann, Mathias
A1  - Krause, Michael U.
A1  - Laubach, Thomas
T1  - Long-run growth expectations and "global imbalances"
T2  - Deutsche Bundesbank: [Discussion paper / 1] Discussion paper : Ser. 1, Economic studies ; No. 2011,01
N2  - This paper examines to what extent the build-up of 'global imbalances' since the mid-1990s can be explained in a purely real open-economy DSGE model in which agents' perceptions of long-run growth are based on filtering observed changes in productivity. We show that long-run growth estimates based on filtering U.S. productivity data comove strongly with long-horizon survey expectations. By simulating the model in which agents filter data on U.S. productivity growth, we closely match the U.S. current account evolution. Moreover, with household preferences that control the wealth effect on labor supply, we can generate output movements in line with the data.
KW  - USA
KW  - Wirtschaftswachstum
KW  - Produktivität
KW  - Adaptive Erwartung
KW  - Erwartungsbildung
KW  - Konjunktur
KW  - Umfrage
KW  - Leistungsbilanz
KW  - Außenwirtschaftliches Gleichgewicht
KW  - Zahlungsbilanzausgleich
KW  - Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht
KW  - Dynamisches Gleichgewicht
KW  - Offene Volkswirtschaft
KW  - Open Economy DSGE Models
KW  - Trend Growth
KW  - Kalman filter
KW  - Real-time Data
KW  - News and Business Cycles
KW  - Current Account
Y1  - 2011
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/35683
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-356833
UR  - http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Publications/Discussion_Paper_1/2011/2011_02_11_dkp_01.pdf
SN  - 978-3–86558–683–4
SN  - 978-3–86558–682–7
N1  - Reproduction permitted only if source is stated.
VL  - 48
PB  - Deutsche Bundesbank
CY  - Frankfurt am Main
ER  -