TY  - JOUR
A1  - Frieler, Katja
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Elliot, Joshua
A1  - Heinke, Jens
A1  - Arneth, Almut
A1  - Bierkens, Marc F. P.
A1  - Ciais, Philippe
A1  - Clark, Douglas B.
A1  - Deryng, Delphine
A1  - Döll, Petra
A1  - Falloon, Pete
A1  - Fekete, Balázs M.
A1  - Folberth, Christian
A1  - Friend, Andrew D.
A1  - Gellhorn, Catrin
A1  - Gosling, Simon N.
A1  - Haddeland, Ingjerd
A1  - Khabarov, Nikolay
A1  - Lomas, Marc R.
A1  - Masaki, Yusuke
A1  - Nishina, Kazuya
A1  - Neumann, Kathleen
A1  - Oki, Taikan
A1  - Pavlick, Ryan
A1  - Ruane, Alex C.
A1  - Schmid, Erwin
A1  - Schmitz, Christoph
A1  - Stacke, Tobias
A1  - Stehfest, Elke
A1  - Tang, Qiuhong
A1  - Wisser, Dominik
A1  - Huber, Veronika
A1  - Piontek, Franziska
A1  - Warszawski, Lila
A1  - Schewe, Jacob
A1  - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
A1  - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
T1  - A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties
T2  - Earth System Dynamics
N2  - Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
Y1  - 2015
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/42453
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-424535
SN  - 2190-4987
SN  - 2190-4979
N1  - © Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
VL  - 6
SP  - 447
EP  - 468
PB  - Copernicus Publications
CY  - Göttingen
ER  -