TY  - JOUR
A1  - Grevenbrock, Nils
A1  - Groneck, Max
A1  - Ludwig, Alexander
A1  - Zimper, Alexander
T1  - Cognition, optimism, and the formation of age-dependent survival beliefs
T2  - International economic review
N2  - This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. Direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of SSBs. Our main finding is that cognitive weakness instead of optimism becomes with age an increasingly important contributor to the well-documented overestimation of survival chances in old age.
Y1  - 2020
UR  - http://publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/63872
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-638723
SN  - 1468-2354
N1  - Nils Grevenbrock and Alex Ludwig gratefully acknowledge financial support by the Research Center SAFE, funded by the State of Hessen initiative for research LOEWE.
VL  - 62
IS  - 2
SP  - 887
EP  - 918
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Malden, Mass. [u.a.]
ER  -