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Perceptions about monetary policy

  • The authors estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions is time-varying and cyclical: high during tightening episodes but low during easings. Forecasters update their perceptions about the policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that forecasters have imperfect information about the rule. The perceived rule impacts asset prices crucial for monetary policy transmission, driving how interest rates respond to macroeconomic news and explaining term premia in long-term interest rates.

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Author:Michael D. BauerORCiDGND, Carolin E. PfluegerORCiDGND, Adi Sunderam
URN:urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-691731
URL:https://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/de/forschung/imfs-working-papers/details/mm_publication/detail/publication/perceptions-about-monetary-policy.html
Parent Title (German):Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; 176
Series (Serial Number):Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (176)
Publisher:Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability
Place of publication:Frankfurt am Main
Document Type:Working Paper
Language:English
Year of Completion:2022
Year of first Publication:2022
Publishing Institution:Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg
Release Date:2023/01/13
Tag:FOMC; beliefs; monetary policy rule; survey forecasts
Edition:December 16, 2022
Page Number:69
Note:
Bauer acknowledges funding by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft), grant no. 425909451. Pflueger acknowledges funding from the National Science Foundation, grant no. 2149193.
Institutes:Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE)
Dewey Decimal Classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
JEL-Classification:E Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / E4 Money and Interest Rates / E43 Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / E5 Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit / E52 Monetary Policy
E Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / E5 Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit / E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Sammlungen:Universitätspublikationen
Licence (German):License LogoDeutsches Urheberrecht

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